Goldilocks Growth Bulls Vs. Valuation Bears: Global Week Ahead

In the Global Week Ahead, for individual stocks earnings releases pick up. 120 S&P 500 firms report.

These include Pfizer (NYSE:PFE), Lockheed Martin (NYSE:LMT), McDonald’s, Eli Lilly, Boeing (NYSE:BA), MetLife (NYSE:MET), AT&T (NYSE:T), Facebook (NASDAQ:FB), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), eBay, Time Warner, UPS, MasterCard, Visa, Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Mattel (NASDAQ:MAT), Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and Merck (NYSE:MRK), among many others.

Now, let’s visit Reuter’s latest Five World Market Themes. We have an event-filled week ahead of us, inside and outside the USA.

(1) Goldilocks World Economy for Bulls, High Stock Valuations for Bears

This is a ‘Goldilocks’ period for world markets. Everything is just right — the global economy is booming, company profits are rising, the central bank stimulus taps are still open and U.S. tax cuts are about to kick in. Wall Street and world stocks are hitting record highs on a near-daily basis.

But the porridge may be getting too hot and the bears are circling. Equity fund inflows last week hit a record $33.2 billion, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BAML). Investor bullishness is reaching extreme levels.

U.S. stocks are way more expensive than their European and Japanese peers, on a price/earnings ratio measure, and the most expensive they’ve been since 2002. The warning signs are flashing red.

Even the bulls would agree that a correction is due. Will the bears get it started this week?

(2) Manufacturing PMI Blizzard Hits This Week

However, this week, a blizzard of global PMI and inflation data should show just how hot the temperature of the world economy is right now.

Asia’s data also includes Korean exports and inflation in Mainland China PMIs. These could give us a good idea just how long the export momentum can be sustained against the backdrop of a U.S. dollar that keeps getting cheaper.

Asian exports have so far been driving overall growth, owing to a synchronized revival in global demand, a healthy upturn in the tech cycle, and a recovery in commodity prices.

In Europe, an added big set of data to watch will be German GDP and inflation figures. If these remain strong, it could push the European Central Bank another step closer to ending its mass stimulus program.

(3) President Trump’s “State of the Union” Address Tuesday Night

On Tuesday, President Trump is due to give his first formal “State of the Union” address. Markets will be listening very carefully, having seen his tax cut plans fuel a renewed surge in stocks this year. But trade and currency war nerves have thumped the U.S. dollar.

Historically, the stock market reaction has been mixed to such speeches. On average the S&P 500 has dipped 0.05% the day after, if you go back to 1965 when Lyndon Johnson gave the first televised State of the Union address.

(4) Watch for Russia Sanctions, Ruble and Debt Rating

Investors are anxiously awaiting U.S. Treasury publications due out this week. These could detail ways of expanding sanctions against Russia, possibly to include Russian government debt.

Foreign investors currently hold around 32% of ruble-denominated Russian treasury bonds, lured by their lucrative yields and the fact the economy is picking up in line with oil prices.

Last Thursday, ratings agency Moody’s raised Russia’s sovereign outlook to positive, citing growing evidence of institutional strength and economic and fiscal resilience. The ruble has rallied to near nine-month highs. And Moscow shares are hitting all-time peaks.

But Russian assets would be vulnerable if U.S. sanctions on Russian ruble debt seem likely. Conversely, if the U.S. Treasury reports are a non-event, a relief rally could follow.

(5) Will Debt and Currency Markets Miss Janet Yellen?

Are we in a new global currency war, or a trade war, or both?

On Wednesday, Janet Yellen holds her final meeting as head of the Federal Reserve, with the U.S. dollar on its weakest run since 2010-2011 when the Fed was printing money hand over fist.

Now, though, the United States is firing a series of volleys over world trade agreements to explicitly protect U.S. industries – just as the Trump administration has been promising over its first year in power.

Tuesday’s State of Union speech is expected to put trade at the top of this year’s agenda. Last week, the administration also slapped 30% tariffs on washing machines and solar panels to show it was prepared to put words into action.

What’s more, there’s widespread concern in Europe the tax reforms themselves breach world trade rules on fair competition between European multinationals and U.S. counterparts. And speculation is rife that Intellectual Property (IP) and steel investigations are now in and will form the basis for more action.

Yet the biggest market mover last week was Treasury Secretary Mnuchin cheerleading the dollar’s already accelerating decline, implying to the foreign exchanges at least that the U.S. was happy to use the currency to add pressure on its overseas trading partners. The euro, sterling, yen and Yuan all surged.

Yellen might be quietly happy she’s handing it over to successor Jerome Powell.

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—

With valuations so high in the USA, I would keep my focus on stocks outside the USA. Here are 3 I like:

BP plc (NYSE:BP) : Ah yes, that $144 billion market cap oil & gas behemoth. With oil prices breaking and holding $60 a barrel, the stock is on the move. And the long-term Zacks VGM score is A.

Asahi Kasei Corp. (OTC:AHKSY) : This is a little-known Japanese diversified chemical company. Yet, it’s stock is on a momentum roll, along with a lot of other multi-national chemical stocks. The long-term Zacks VGM score is still A, too. So more upside looks to be in store.

H Lundbeck A/S (OTC:HLUYY) : This is a $10 billion in market cap European (Danish) large-cap pharma name. You may not know it. H Lundbeck’s products are targeted at disorders like depression and anxiety, schizophrenia, insomnia, Huntington's, epilepsies, Alzheimer's and Parkinson's diseases. The long-term Zacks VGM score is A.

Key Global Macro—

On Tuesday, President Trump’s “State of the Union” address is at 9 pm ET.

The Eurozone can hit 3% to 4% GDP growth based on signals sent through purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs). Yet it probably won’t happen in next Tuesday’s Q4 GDP report. Nevertheless, Europe’s GDP growth momentum has been steadily improving since the end of 2016.

Wednesday’s FOMC Meeting will be a statement-only event at 2 pm ET. No forecasts. No dot plots. Say goodbye to Janet Yellen!

Thursday, world markets get a U.S. ISM manufacturing reading. The last PMI was hot at 159.7.

Friday’s January non-farm payroll is a big final moment in the week ahead. December was low at +148K. Look at the annual wage growth figure in this report, too.

On Monday, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) price index, the Fed’s favored measure of Consumer Inflation, comes out. The monthly advance should be +0.2% m/m, which converts to a 2.4% annualized rate. The prior was +0.1% m/m.

U.S. personal incomes and personal spending also come out. Look for +0.5% m/m advances out of both.

The unemployment rate in Japan is now 2.7%.

On Tuesday, France should see its latest GDP growth figures. The prior reading showed a +2.3 y/y expansion underway. That’s the average for Europe overall.

Spain’s GDP shows final +3.1% y/y growth.

Eurozone GDP growth, in seasonally adjusted terms, should get to +2.9% y/y from +2.6% y/y. The quarterly growth rate should move from +0.6% to +0.8%.

Brazil’s capacity utilization rate is now expected at 78.2% versus 78.3% prior.

The U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index comes out. The prior was +6.4% y/y.

On Wednesday, Mainland China’s manufacturing PMI comes out. The prior was 51.6.

France’s HICP inflation rate comes out. The prior showed a +1.2% y/y increase.

The latest German unemployment rate comes out. The prior was 5.5%.

The latest Eurozone unemployment rate comes out. The prior was 8.7%.

The U.S. ADP employment survey comes out. The prior was +250K. The forecast is for +160K.

The U.S. Fed Funds rate is re-set. The prior was 1.5% and no change from Janet Yellen’s last meeting is expected.

On Thursday, India’s manufacturing PMI comes out. Last time was 54.7.

Ireland’s manufacturing PMI comes out too. The last reading was a hot 59.1.

The Eurozone manufacturing PMI comes out. The last reading was 59.6.

U.S. initial claims for unemployment come out. The last reading was a low 233K.

The ISM manufacturing reading for the USA comes out. The last measure was a hot 59.7.

On Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate comes out. The prior one was 4.1% and the new one could get to 4.0%.

Non-farm U.S. payroll should be +145K in January.

University of Michigan sentiment comes out. The prior was 94.4.