It’s not a chart of nominal HUI with upside technical targets. Rather, it’s a companion to other charts we’ve been reviewing over the last several months showing the under-valuation of the gold stock sector relative to gold’s performance vs. cyclical assets/markets. For example, gold has risen strongly vs. the CRB index and that is a sector fundamental under valuation.
But on the macro picture, do you think that maybe gold stocks would benefit if gold manages to turn up vs. the U.S. stock market? This chart appears to hold the key. HUI has been in a beautiful correlation to Gold/SPX since the 2011 top. To this point, the ratio has not turned up but you can see why I harp so much on the need for Au/SPX to get in gear. If it does, and joins Au/CRB and others, hang on to your hats and prepare for some upside targeting beyond the bounces of the last few years. We’d then go from identifying value mode to acquiring targets mode.
For a little perspective, here is the GLD/SPY ratio (daily chart) nearly an hour after Thursday’s open. It appears to be breaking upward from a bull flag and a hold of the SMA 200. If it holds up, it could be an initial hint about the above scenario unfolding.
