USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade - Morning Session - GMT

By Forex Pros (Jason Alan Jankovsky)Nov 18, 2008 02:53AM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/fundamental/usd-falls-after-early-strength-stops-drive-trade---morning-session---gmt-13070

USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade - Morning Session - GMT

By Forex Pros (Jason Alan Jankovsky) | Nov 18, 2008 02:53AM ET

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Today’s US Dollar Trading

• USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade
• Equities rally lifts EURO
• Volumes remain light

Overnight Preview
• Look for follow-on USD selling
• Two-way action likely as technical’s dominate

Looking Ahead to Tuesday
All times EASTERN (-5 GMT)
• 8:30am USD PPI m/m
• 8:30am USD Core PPI m/m
• 9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchases
• 1:00pm USD NAHB Housing Market Index

Summary

After starting overnight Asia better the USD reversed to continue mostly lower as US equities attempted to rally to start the week. Traders note that volumes thinned out after the London fix but the majors continued to hold gains and advance. GBP rallied into stops placed above the 1.5000/10 area for a high print at 1.5085 as stops above the 1.5050 area also were triggered; large investment house bids and sovereign bids were seen in earlier trade helping to hold the rate firm. As equities advanced into their highs EURO found additional stops above 1.2710 area for a high print at 1.2743 before backing off as equities deflated but not before two attempts at stops above the 1.2750 area were turned back. Poor economic data in the US also helped to keep the majors firm and tomorrows data is likely to remain unfriendly to the USD, traders expect additional upside pressure in both EURO and GBP after today’s upside action scored above near-term resistance. USD/JPY tracked stocks as expected and lifted to an intraday high at 97.57 before dropping back later in the day; traders note that two-way action and Yen cross spreading continue to dominate action and further losses are likely this week. Upside resistance is high above the 98.00 handle suggesting that the USD may be finding willing sellers on rallies. USD/CHF continued to hover at or near the two-year high around the 1.1950 area with thin conditions exaggerating the moves but high prints at 1.2010 went unchallenged in New York trade. In my view, the USD is setting up for a long-liquidating break near-term. Technical trade and low volumes likely have helped the Greenback hold recent gains but additional US data and overbought conditions suggests that at least a correction is due. Failure of the USD to score new highs this week make a correction to end the month more likely in my view. Aggressive traders can look to sell USD/CHF above the 1.2000 handle and sell USD/CAD above the 1.2375 area; expect volatility and always run your stops.

Disclaimer: Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information contained within this website including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible. Currency trading on margin involves high risk, and is not suitable for all investors Before deciding to trade foreign exchange or any other financial instrument you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite.

Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All stock prices, indexes, futures and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn’t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

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USD falls after early strength, stops drive trade - Morning Session - GMT

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