Daily Report: Focusing Turning to UK CPI

By ActionForexNov 17, 2008 07:00PM ET

www.investing.com/analysis/fundamental/daily-report%253A-focusing-turning-to-uk-cpi-13124

Daily Report: Focusing Turning to UK CPI

By ActionForex | Nov 17, 2008 07:00PM ET

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The forex markets remain bounded in tight range today even though the greenback is mildly firmer on risk aversion. More noticeable movements are found in GBP/USD's recovery as well as USD/CHF's strength. Though, both are cross driven as sterling continues to recover after hitting record low of 0.8660 against Euro last week. Swissy also continues to retreat in EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF crosses after both hit record low earlier this quarter. Note that since Sterling's recovery is corrective in nature, recent down trend is still expected in respective pairs. Swissy, only other hand, will likely remain the weaker one among European majors until it's pullback in crosses completes. Elsewhere, crude oil is set to retest 55 level again while gold remains directionless in tight range.

Main focus in the European session will be consumer inflation data from UK. CPI is expected to moderate from 5.2% peak in Sep to 4.8% yoy in Oct. Core CPI is expected to be unchanged at 2.2%. RPI is expected to slow from 5.0% to 4.6% while RPI-X is expected to slow from 5.5% to 5.2%. BoE has noted that inflation risk has 'shifted decisively to the downside' and justified the much larger than expected 150bps cut earlier this month. Today's data might mark the turn of trend in inflation that support BoE's cut. Also, any sign of steeper than expected fall in inflation will give room to BoE for carrying on the steep path of policy easing. Other data from Europe include Swiss retail sales.

US Treasury Paulson said overnight that financial markets distress will remain for "a number of months" even though fears of bank collapse subside. He also said that he's not looking to start new lending program unless it's absolutely necessary. The reserves, which are in excess of $400b, will be preserved for Obama administration. Markets focus will turn to TARP testimony of Fed Bernanke, Treasury Paulson and FDIC Bair. data from US is expected to show steeper moderation in PPI by -1.8% mom in Cot, brining yoy rate down from 8.7% to 6.2%. Though, core PPI is expected to be unchanged at 4.00% yoy. NAHB housing markets index is expected to be unchanged at 15 in Nov.

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Central Banks

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May 07, 2025

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Apr 17, 2025

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4.50%

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0.25%

Jun 19, 2025

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May 20, 2025

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Apr 16, 2025

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3.50%

May 28, 2025

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0.50%

May 01, 2025

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Apr 25, 2025

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Jun 06, 2025

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3.10%

BCB

14.25%

May 07, 2025

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Daily Report: Focusing Turning to UK CPI

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