Expeditors International (EXPD) Down 20.3% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Expeditors International (EXPD). Shares have lost about 20.3% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Expeditors International due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Earnings Beat at Expeditors in Q4

Expeditors' earnings of 81 cents per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by a penny. However, the bottom line decreased 20.6% on a year-over-year basis. Further, total revenues of $2.04 billion missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.19 billion and also declined 9% year over year.

Lower volumes hurt Expeditors’ quarterly results. Given the company’s exposure in China, the slowdown in trade to and from China proved to be a huge setback for Expeditors. Notably, volumes with respect to airfreight tonnage and ocean container contracted 6% and 13%, respectively, year over year. Operating income dropped 17% in the final quarter of 2019.

During the fourth quarter, the company repurchased 1.2 million shares at an average price of $73.89 per share. The company exited 2019 with cash and cash equivalents of $1.23 billion compared with $923.7 million at the end of 2018.

Segmental Revenues

Airfreight Services revenues were down 16.3% year over year to $757.9 million in the fourth quarter. Ocean Freight and Ocean Services revenues deteriorated 15.5% to $519.7 million. However, Customs Brokerage and Other Services revenues increased 7.3% year over year to $767.2 million.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, estimates review have trended downward during the past month. The consensus estimate has shifted -13.06% due to these changes.

VGM Scores

Currently, Expeditors International has a great Growth Score of A, though it is lagging a lot on the Momentum Score front with an F. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of D. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of these revisions indicates a downward shift. It's no surprise Expeditors International has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We expect a below average return from the stock in the next few months.