EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1611; (P) 1.1642; (R1) 1.1698;
EUR/CHF surges to as high as 1.1673. Break of 1.1639 minor resistance argues that pull back from 1.1832 has completed at 1.1445 already. Intraday bias is back on the upside for retesting 1.1832 high. At this point, we’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to bring another fall. Corrective pattern from 1.1832 might still have an attempt on 1.1355 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.1832 at 1.1372) before completion. On the downside, below 1.1566 minor support will target 1.1455 low again.
In the bigger picture, a medium term top should be in place at 1.1832 on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. But there is no indication of long term reversal yet. As long as 1.1198 resistance turned support holds, we’d still expect another rise through prior SNB imposed floor at 1.2000.
USD/CAD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2826; (P) 1.2910; (R1) 1.2959;
A temporary top is in place at 1.3000 in USD/CAD and intraday bias is turned neutral first. Nonetheless, outlook stays mildly bullish as long as 1.2757 resistance turned support holds. Another rise is still in favor. Above 1.3000 will extend the rise from 1.2246 to t 1.3065 fibonacci level next. However, firm break of 1.2757 will indicate reversal and turn outlook bearish for 1.2450 support.
In the bigger picture, strong break of 1.2919 resistance adds much credence to the bullish case. That is larger down trend from 1.4589 has completed at 1.2061, drawing support from 50% retracement of 0.9406 (2011 low) to 1.4689 (2015 high) at 1.2048. Further rally should be seen back to 38.2% retracement of 1.4689 to 1.2061 at 1.3065 first. Break will target 61.8% retracement at 1.3685. This will be the preferred case now as long as 1.2687 support holds.
