Boston Scientific (BSX) Down 12.9% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Boston Scientific (BSX). Shares have lost about 12.9% in that time frame, underperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent negative trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Boston Scientific due for a breakout? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Boston Scientific Sees Growth In All Lines in Q4

Boston Scientific posted adjusted earnings per share of 46 cents in the fourth quarter of 2019, up 17.9% from the year-ago quarter. The same also exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 4.5% as well. Moreover, the figure surpassed the company’s guided range of 42-45 cents. The adjustments take into consideration certain litigation charges related to the company’s Channel Medsystems, Inc. purchase issue among others.

Reported EPS in the fourth quarter was $2.83, substantially above the year-ago earnings of 27 cents per share.

For the full year, adjusted EPS was $1.58, reflecting a 7.5% improvement from the year-earlier period. The figure also came a penny ahead of the Zacks Consensus Estimate, reaching the upper end of the company’s guided range of $1.55-$1.58.

Revenues in the fourth quarter rose 13.4% year over year reportedly, up 14.1% on an operational basis (at constant exchange rate or CER) and up 7.3% on an organic basis (adjusted for foreign currency fluctuations and certain recent acquisitions) to $2.91 billion. However, the number missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.92 billion by a close margin.

Full-year revenues of $10.74 billion were up 9.3% year over year on a reported basis (up 11.1% on an operational basis and up 7.3% on an organic basis). Here too, revenues marginally lagged the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.75 billion.

Q4 Revenues in Detail

In the fourth quarter, the company achieved 13.4% growth in the United States on a reported basis (same operationally); 7.2% improvement in the Europe, Middle East and Africa region (up 9.7%); 11.3% growth in the Asia Pacific zone (up 11.5%); 0.6% rise in Latin America and Canada (up 2.9%) and 14.1% increase in the emerging markets (up 16.2%).

Segmental Analysis

Boston Scientific currently has three global reportable segments: Cardiovascular, Rhythm and Neuro plus MedSurg.

The company generates maximum revenues from Cardiovascular. Sales from its subsegments, namely Interventional Cardiology and Peripheral Interventions were $748 million (up 12.8% year over year organically) and $403 million (up 3.6%), respectively, in the fourth quarter.

Boston Scientific's Rhythm and Neuro business comprises Cardiac Rhythm Management (CRM), Electrophysiology and Neuromodulation. CRM reflected a 2.6% year-over-year fall in organic sales to $473 million in the reported quarter.

Electrophysiology sales inched up 3.7% year over year, organically, to $84 million. Neuromodulation sales grew 7.8% year over year on an organic basis to $261 million.

Other segments like Endoscopy plus Urology and Pelvic Health (under the MedSurg broader group) recorded sales of $499 million (up 9.6% organically) and $379 million (up 11.7%), respectively.

Margins

Gross margin in the fourth quarter contracted 83 basis points (bps) year over year to 70.7% due to a 16.7% rise in the cost of products sold.

Adjusted operating margin declined 48 bps to 21.9% in the reported quarter. Selling, general and administrative expenses increased 14.6% to $1.09 billion while research and development expenses rose 7.3% to $309 million. Meanwhile, royalty expenses of $17 million fell 5.6% year over year.

Guidance

Boston Scientific projects full-year 2020 revenue growth in the 10-12% range on a reported basis. Organically (adjusted for foreign currency fluctuations, certain recent acquisitions and divestitures), revenues are projected in the band of 6.5-8.5%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2020 revenues is pegged at $12.08 billion.

The company expects its 2020 adjusted earnings per share in the $1.74-$1.79 bracket. The Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged at $1.79.

The company also provided its first-quarter 2020 financial outlook. It envisions revenue growth in the range of 10-12% on a reported basis and at 5-7% on an organic basis. Adjusted earnings per share is anticipated within 37-40 cents. The consensus mark for EPS stands at 41 cents while the same for revenues is pegged at $2.85 billion.

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

In the past month, investors have witnessed a downward trend in fresh estimates.

VGM Scores

At this time, Boston Scientific has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. However, the stock was allocated a grade of D on the value side, putting it in the bottom 40% for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of C. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Estimates have been broadly trending downward for the stock, and the magnitude of this revision has been net zero. Notably, Boston Scientific has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). We expect an in-line return from the stock in the next few months.