Bonds Analysis & Opinion

What's New: I've updated the charts below through Thursday's close. The yield on the 10-year note ended the day at 2.90%, a new interim closing high from its historic low of 1.43% on July 25th of last...

Since establishing an interim top, this has been a one way trade as of the beginning of May where the long end and short end of the curve has each gotten hit. 30-yr bonds have depreciated 12%, 10-yr...

Bond prices tanked after the FOMC Minutes increased the likelihood of 2013 tapering event. Unlike Stocks and FX, Bond traders were unanimous in their reaction, with 10Y benchmark prices hitting lower...

In recent weeks much has been written and said about who President Obama should select as the next Fed Chairman. Supporters of Larry Summers and Janet Yellen are said to be each pressing the case for...

I Love junk bonds!Two For OneThey're awesome total return tools when the trend is up while they provide quality "leading signals" for the macro economy. Speaking of total return, the chart below...

Daily ChartFed Tapering is the most commonly used phrase in market commentary these days, and has been blamed as the driver for why US stocks pushed lower yesterday. However, yields of the benchmark...

The QE party is ending. And the hangover that follows is going to be brutal.Since 2007 the Central Bankers of the world have operated under the belief that they can hold the financial system together...

Daily ChartThere has been renewed speculation that the Fed would execute tapering action in September. Whether this speculation has any merit is debatable, but the impact on US Treasuries is clear for...

Let's have a look at a long-term perspective on Treasury yields. The chart below shows the 10-Year Constant Maturity yield since 1962 along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) and inflation. The range...

Let's take a look at bonds because rising rates are capturing broad attention.We use the 20+ Year T-Bonds ETF (TLT) as the surrogate for long bond timing. As of 5/20/2013 TLT is on a Trend Model...

Although today’s release of UK employment date appeared neutral by the measure of the ILO figures used by the Bank of England, the second consecutively monthly decline of 29K in claimant...

Speculation that the Fed will begin slowing its purchases of long-term assets as early as next month is arguably the most significant market force. One would intuitively expect that, given the forward...