Allstate Gets Negative Ratings Due To Coronavirus-Led Fears

Fitch Ratings has revised the rating outlook for U.S. personal lines insurer Allstate Corporation (NYSE:ALL) and its core insurance subsidiaries to stable from positive.

Allstate Life, Benefits and Annuities businesses, which are susceptible to the current volatile macroeconomic environment, formed nearly 10% of the company’s 2019 total revenues. Allstate's most important business is personal lines (consisting of homeowners and automobile insurance).

Notably, the company is also one of the largest life insurers in the country. Allstate’s life insurance operations provide cross-selling opportunities and balance to its core property-casualty insurance operations.

The rating agency is concerned about the financial market volatility created by the coronavirus pandemic, with the federal reserve slashing interest rates between 0% and 0.25%. The current interest rate scenario has also resulted in “significant” variabilities in stock, bond and derivative prices.

The rating agency is bothered about Allstate’s exposure to life insurance business. However, its property/casualty insurance operations should be better off.

Fitch also takes into account Allstate’s core life insurance subsidiaries, which are exposed to spikes in mortality. This implies that the insurer might suffer a double whammy from financial market instability combined with life insurance exposure, which may create some pressure on earnings and variability in capital. Fitch, however, cannot predict with certainty, the severity and duration of the volatility.

At the same time, Fitch affirmed existing ratings for the company, including the A+ financial strength ratings it has for Allstate and its subsidiaries.

Meanwhile, insurers have taken measures to limit the risk arising from coronavirus-led claims by keeping on hold the sale of insurance policies to customers who have traveled to regions with widespread outbreaks, such as China, Iran, and many European nations.

Lincoln National Corp. (NYSE:LNC) and American International Group Inc. (NYSE:AIG) have already imposed a 30-day waiting period on suspected customers.

Insurance industry lost 45.2% year to date, compared with Zacks S&P 500 composite decline of 25%. Allstate has declined 33.6% in the same time frame, while other stocks in the space such as Lincoln National and American International have lost 67% and 59.8%, respectively.

We believe Allstate is not likely to have a smooth ride ahead as its personal lines business is already facing stiff competition from other players. Though the company has seen an increase in insurance premium pricing in most of its lines of businesses, which might aid its revenues, catastrophe loss may weigh on underwriting margins. Allstate has already estimated catastrophe losses of $58 million for January. The company did not disclose catastrophe losses for the month of February. The company is expected to incur catastrophe loss from Tennessee tornado that occurred at the beginning of March.

Allstate has lost 36% year to date, compared with its industry's decline of 25%.

Allstate carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). A better-ranked stock in the insurance space is Cincinnati Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:CINF) , carrying a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). The stock surpassed estimates in the trailing four quarters, the positive surprise being 17.86%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.

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