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US Coffee C Futures - Jul 24 (KCN4)

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KCDerivedUSD
KCc1ICEUSD
KCc2ICEUSD
KCc3ICEUSD
KCc4ICEUSD
KCc5ICEUSD
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KCc7ICEUSD
Currency in USD
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200.55
-5.55(-2.69%)
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US Coffee C Futures Discussions

This and coca, too big of a coincidence. Somebody got set up and just lost a ton on both, unless they set up for a monster short, which I doubt is do-able.
Brazil is flooding ICE with new bags.
Old bags
I wouldn't say old bags. They're clearing out their warehouses in preparation for the new harvest. People got suckered into the whole Robusta shortage scare tactics. Yea there's a shortage, but its nothing near what the market freaked out and responded to. Floor's been pulled out and there's only one way its going for the near future. Buckle up because the bulls are dead. Brokers have been saying the same thing, technicals don't match the fundementals and everything was grossly oversold.
Maybe that 11 ounce can of cheap coffee won't cost $6 next month.
when it hits 200 we move on.....down
almost there, patience needed
For?
:)
Deep pockets are really shaken the Coffee tree hard, to get ALL longs to give up and close their positions. LOL.
They trayed HARD and was obviously what was wanted, to push PA below 200, but they failed. - Next week will be interesting.
Going tbh, this may be the most worthless chat I’m aware of… Most were bullish when this started tanking from 230 w/funds long to the hilt. Last time posting here
Could go late 180's, we will see
Looking for the wick low to get long. Nearly there.
On a day frame, we looking for the end of the Up trend at area : 260 - 300 !!!
Now, we're at the reversal point ...
Someone ready to bet we are at 150 in 15 days from now ?
Short Dude. Thus, you got it right from the beginning: expectation was 16mb, 11mb would be IF drop of 30% !!! :) would happen...
Nobody knows at the moment what total R production will be in this season, for sure. But one thing is certain: if somehow it will come to 20 - 21mb, the frustration will be HUGE. Also, average yield Stone X saw for R in 2024 is 58b/ha. :) Vietnam is already behind ... :(
looking forward to it
Don't listen, don't believe
Don´t listen or believe - Who??
6 dislike,...
what s with this dead horse? down, down, down...a bit of upward movement?
we might even see 190 before frost season drama.. for now I'm happy, I'll let coffee relax and will just wait.. the spike we had last few weeks I posted about it before it happened and attributed to the cacao fanbois because I heard it firsthand from 4 different farmers in 3 different countries (they don't know each other) and they were salivating for higher prices on their stored bags (hidden bags).. when farmers do such it's always short lived because they are ready to sell the spike
before maybe
The rains have power! The price of cocoa fell 30% due to the forecast of rain. Of course, this is a simplification, but when long positions are leveraged too much, a small spark is enough to cause a drop. The situation with coffee is a little different, perfectly described by Viriato, so such large drops should not befall us.
ES possible yield issue was attributed to current El Nino effect and correlates well with last strong El Nino, so some reduction if it'll happen, wouldn't be something absolutely strange and unusual... (Got myself a bit of coffee :) just in case :))
Nobody knows how it's gonna be this time, but it may be worth noting, that reduction that was projected in relation to 20-21 drought, before the frost, was not absorbed that easy, the realization came later, before the harvest started many believed it's gonna be a new record again and price will drop to 50c... The diff is that back then main drought focus was on Brazil only :).
Meanwhile, some low temps anomalies (given month on same month in a past) started revealing themselves :) in Western India, Pakistan, Myanmar - lowest temps for month of May ever or in decades... (open sources)
good morning
now the good Ole question who booked shorts above 229?
Great job, I came out with half the position,there's more power, The next objective is further down.
good morning ❤️ just woke up to find my orders were filled at 209.. Houston strikes again 236 to 209.. kisses
endless fall is here again
Robusta market FALLING APART ! Seems KC is going the same way. Dark clouds are coming over KC. Can we go to 150 ? Comments.....
Took it from Ryan Delany twitter, he's citing last ICO data: "cumulative global coffee export of roughly 13mb in March is +12.7 percent mom and +8 percent yoy, making it 5th consecutive month out of 6 so far in 23/24 of above average global coffee exports."
In its Dec report USDA projected global exports in 23/24 as of 142mb (in its Jun report projection was 146mb but got revised in Dec).
Last drop :). USDA, May 17th, 2021: Arabica production is forecast at 35 million bags, a thirty percent reduction compared to the previous crop. The majority of producing areas are in the off-year of the biennial production cycle, resulting in lower production potential for the upcoming crop. Several growers have also pruned their coffee fields at above-average rates after the record crop in 2020, thus reducing the area to be harvested. In addition, adverse weather conditions have notably affected the production outcome for 2021. The persistent drought and high temperatures in major coffee growing regions in the second semester of 2020 and in the beginning months of 2021 not only affected blossoming and fruit setting, but have affected fruit development/filling as well.
Let's attribute 15% to OFF cycle and heavy pruning, and 15% to drought. What percentage has to be attributed now to Vietnam and India, etc, for example, for R only ? 5 percent doesn't look fool :)...
Bad,200 target soon...
do you have his whatsapp?
only Telegram
only viber
Funds aren’t done dumping their longs…
New day? Keep selling is their mentality
Ryan DeLoach, thanks Ry
but wouldn't there be a lack of coffee in Brazil? Small 23/24 harvest and no carryover stocks? What happened to such a large volume exported from Jul23 to Apr24?
Forget about Brasil, the problem now is Vietnam, we are having disponibilities issue, and robusta now is big part of the world coffee blend
Also if the coffee in Brasil was enough to suply the market, why is still above 2.15?
about 2 weeks ago, price hit 3 per bag in many markets.... so expect lots of supply
300
hi ❤️
213 is here, I thinking to go outside.
...
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