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The world economy is weakening: the US payroll tax increase and “sequestration” are pressuring the US economy; China is being pressured by Japan, and has “dampened” their housing market. the Eurozone remains mired in “inaction.” For now, although we feel that risk is being mispriced at current levels given recent pressure upon world economic figures and the developing pressure upon corporate margins/ earnings — the consensus is that the world’s central banks will save the day.
STRATEGY: The S&P 500 remains above the 160-wma long-term support level at 1341; and the standard 200-dma support level at 1521. But perhaps more importantly, the distance above the 160-wma has has now faltered below the +23% “bubble-like rally” threshold. This is a warning sign to be sure; especially given 1600 was violated to the downside.
The first day back after the long weekend brought traders back down to earth. A weak sale of US 2-year and 5-year notes, and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Neel Kashkari’s...
A broad set of US economic indicators continue to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. This profile upends the dark narrative...
This article follows part one, which discusses the massive investment dollars that will be spent expanding and modernizing the power grid to facilitate demand from AI data centers...
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