Bonds Analysis & Opinion

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyFinancial conditions eased markedly through November, as market rates fell and credit spreads tightened (record month for bond returns). The recessionary...

Investors are increasing their collective bets that the Federal Reserve will soon start cutting interest rates – a bet that went into overdrive this week and ignited the strongest rally in bonds...

By Benjamin Schroeder & Padhraic GarveyThe rates rally found its confirmation in German and Spanish inflation data ahead of today's eurozone release, but finally seemed to pause after more hawkish...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederRates continue to push lower after a soft 7-year US Treasury auction as Federal Reserve officials offer little pushback against the market's pricing of rate...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederNothing like a few auctions to help test the temperature. Yields sailed lower yesterday through the 2-year and 5-year UST auctions, which did not help their...

By Benjamin SchroederMarkets are clearly eyeing the turn of the rate cycle, but amid central banks’ 'high for longer' messaging and data releases, volatility remains elevated. Add to that the...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyWhile the market is clearly eyeing a change in the rate cycle, 10-year UST yields are still fighting a battle along the 4.5% area, with the deficit-induced...

The 10-year US government bond yield was hovering around 3.75% when we first wrote about it in mid-February. Elliott Wave analysis led us to conclude that there was quite a good chance of it reaching...

By Padhraic Garvey & Benjamin SchroederHow convinced are we that the Fed has peaked? You can never be 100% sure on this, but the odds firmly favor the view that they’re done. That places...

Current yields for the major asset classes edged higher recently, based on a set of proxy ETFs through the close of trading on Monday, Nov. 13.The average yield for global risk assets ticked up to...

By Benjamin Schroeder and Padhraic GarveyThe tension between markets eyeing a change in the rating cycle discount and central banks pushing back should raise volatility. Today's US CPI can provide the...

US Treasury yields soared after Moody's (NYSE:MCO) switched to a negative outlook for the United States, hammering home the news that the BRICS alliance has officially surpassed the G7 economies. Make...

As I’ve mentioned in previous posts and webinars, the bond market is probably the least understood of the four capital markets. Most people’s eyes glaze over whenever it is mentioned....

By Padhraic GarveyThe US 10-year auction tailed, but the bond bulls don't seem to care. It looks like the market is playing with a change in the rate cycle discount. It's not illogical, but likely a...