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FTSE tiptoes higher; further gains seen muted

Published 04/04/2011, 12:22 PM
Updated 04/04/2011, 12:24 PM
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* FTSE up 0.1 percent

* Miners firmer; banks decline

* Technicals suggest rally looks stretched

By Simon Falush

LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - Strength from commodity stocks helped Britain's top shares inch up to its highest close in six weeks on Monday, but trading was light and investors were sceptial about prospects for further gains.

The FTSE 100 closed up 7.06 points, or 0.1 percent, at 6,016.98, adding to the six-week closing high seen on Friday after solid U.S. jobs data boosted confidence surrounding recovery momentum in the world's largest economy.

Blue chips have rallied near 8 percent from a 2011 low on March 15, as investor confidence returned following the shock of Japan's earthquake and unrest in the Arab world.

Volumes were light, however, with the FTSE trading below 80 percent of its average 90-day volume. Trading was thin for most trading sessions in March. Some investors said this indicated gains made in recent sessions were fragile.

"If volume falls as prices rise, that it is not a setting for reliable price action," said Charles Morris, manager of the $2.5 billion HSBC Wealth opportunities fund.

Mining stocks provided the bulk of the upward momentum on Monday as optimism on the outlook for corporate earnings offset concerns over political upheaval in North Africa and the Middle East and Europe's debt crisis.

Morris said this optimism may be misplaced. "Profit margins are very high relative to the mean, with inflation and the need to go ahead with capex projects which have been put off, likey to put pressure on them going forward," he said, adding defensive, top quality companies were the safest bet.

Precious metals miner Fresnillo gained 2.9 percent as gold rose back above $1,430 against a weakening dollar, ahead of the European Central Bank's (ECB) next interest rate decision.

Aggreko was up 5.3 percent, as the temporary power provider prepared to ship gas and diesel generators to Japan which will provide emergency electricity supplies to the grid from June.

OUTLOOK UNCERTAIN

Cyclical banks were the sharpest fallers, facing pressure from the prospect of higher interest rates which are likely to depress margins.

The ECB said it expected to raise interest rates on Thursday, with bets increasing that the Bank of England as well as the U.S. Federal Reserve might follow suit.

Sentiment on banks was also dampened by worries over the debt situation in Ireland and Portugal, and the potential tightening of regulations surrounding their capital requirements.

From a technical perspective, as well as low volumes, price action also suggested there would not be significant further gains.

Sandy Jadeja, chief technical analyst at City Index, said momentum on the FTSE 100 was, from a technical point of view, "still bullish, but looking a little bit overstretched, which could suggest sideways movement".

He pointed to a resistance area at 6,050-6,117, adding that the index needed to hold above 5,908 which, if broken, could see the index come down to 5,845, or 5,804. (Editing by Dan Lalor) ($1 = 0.7031 euros)

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