The AUD/USD has been on a downward trend since the start of the year, hitting fresh lows after only managing a three-wave rise to the 0.6666 March highs, which was part of a triangle pattern visible on the 4-hour chart. Notably, the pair broke below the trendline support earlier thos month as bearish momentum increased, descending into wave C. However, there are now signs of a bottom, highlighted by a strong rebound back above the 0.6496 level. With the price returning to the mid-range, it appears that the lows are in place, setting the stage for potential upside in the coming days.
The rise in the Aussie is driven by CPI data from Australia, which surged higher than expected for the first time since November 2023. This unexpected inflation spike suggests that the Reserve Bank of Australia might delay cutting rates, supporting the currency's recovery. Additionally, if any next important U.S. economic data indicates a slowdown, expectations that the Fed might reduce rates this year could weaken the USD, benefiting both the Aussie and stock markets. Moreover, it's noteworthy that commodities like copper and even Chinese stocks are showing signs of recovery this week, further buoying sentiment around the Aussie. So, I think aussie can be good for longs on dips. I also talked about this one in our video on Monday.