The week just ended was a mixed bag for the eight indexes on our world watch list. The three European indexes were the only winners, especially the two Eurozone members, in hopes of a resolution to the Grecian conundrum. The S&P 500 was the best of the losers, ending a nauseatingly volatile week with flat finish. The Asia Pacific indexes fared less well, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng as the biggest loser, down 4.46%. That said, the top performer of that cohort, the Shanghai Composite, at Wednesday's close was down 10.37% from last Friday. The two-day rally that followed was its biggest since biggest two-day advance since September 2008.
Here is an overlay of the eight for a sense of their comparative performance so far in 2015.
Let's take a closer look at the Shanghai over the past nine years. Below is a log-scale daily chart illustrating the bubble that peaked in 2007 and the rally that started last year. The plunge from the 2015 peak has been astonishingly swift and severe. The two-day rally that ended the most recent week has some pundits breathing a sigh of relief in hopes the worst is over. But a comparison with the 2007-2008 suggests skepticism that the gain over the last two sessions is a major reversal.
Here is a table of the 2015 data performance, sorted from high to low, along with the interim highs for the eight indexes. All eight indexes are in the green, with China remaining at the top despite its stunning selloff.
A Closer Look at the Last Four Weeks
The tables below provide a concise overview of performance comparisons over the past four weeks (through year's end) for these eight major indexes. We've also included the average for each week so that we can evaluate the performance of a specific index relative to the overall mean and better understand weekly volatility. The colors for each index name help us visualize the comparative performance over time.
The chart below illustrates the comparative performance of World Markets since March 9, 2009. The start date is arbitrary: The S&P 500, CAC 40 and BSE SENSEX hit their lows on March 9th, the Nikkei 225 on March 10th, the DAX on March 6th, the FTSE on March 3rd, the Shanghai Composite on November 4, 2008, and the Hang Seng even earlier on October 27, 2008. However, by aligning on the same day and measuring the percent change, we get a better sense of the relative performance than if we align the lows.
A Longer Look Back
Here is the same chart starting from the turn of 21st century. The relative over-performance of the emerging markets (Shanghai, Mumbai SENSEX and Hang Seng) up to their 2007 peaks is evident, and the SENSEX remains by far the top performer. The Shanghai, in contrast, formed a perfect Eiffel Tower from late 2006 to late 2009.
Check back next week for a new update.
Note: We track Germany's DAXK a price-only index, instead of the more familiar DAX index (which includes dividends), for consistency with the other indexes, which do not include dividends.
All the indexes are calculated in their local currencies.