Final hours! Save up to 55% OFF InvestingProCLAIM SALE

Stocks gain on rate cut bets as ECB meeting looms

Published 06/04/2024, 10:52 PM
Updated 06/05/2024, 05:07 PM
© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: A man walks past an electric screen displaying Japan's Nikkei share average and the current Japanese Yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan March 21, 2024.  REUTERS/Issei Kato/ file photo
JP225
-
HK50
-
LCO
-
CL
-
DXY
-

By Danilo Masoni and Koh Gui Qing

NEW YORK/MILAN (Reuters) -World shares rose and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Wednesday as investors focused on an upcoming European Central Bank policy meeting and soft U.S. labor market data firmed bets of a September Federal Reserve interest rate cut.

Canada's central bank cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in four years, bolstering investor hopes that stocks would soon get a boost from lower interest rates elsewhere.

A U.S. labor report showed private payrolls increased by 152,000 jobs last month, less than forecast.

"The labor market should not be seen as a risk for inflation any longer," analysts at TD Securities said. "It is also supportive of the Fed beginning to ease policy in September if inflation continues to gradually normalize as we expect by then."

The MSCI world equity index, which tracks shares in 49 countries, jumped 0.9%, supported by gains in Asia, Europe and on Wall Street. The S&P 500 index climbed 1.2% to a record high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite Index leapt 2%, also to an all-time high. [.N]

Boosting the Nasdaq, Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) hit a record high, lifting the AI chipmaker's stock market valuation to $3 trillion as it passed Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) to become the world's second-most valuable company.

The ECB meets on Thursday, and markets price in an almost certain chance of a first rate cut.

"I have a positive view on tomorrow's cut because it marks the end of an era of rate hikes that began two years ago," said Carlo Franchini, head of institutional clients at Banca Ifigest.

"Now, we'll need to see the impact that rate cuts will have on domestic demand and the economic recovery".

Data showed euro zone business activity expanded in May at its quickest rate in a year as growth in services outpaced a contraction in manufacturing.

The pan-European STOXX 600 index was up 0.8% and the MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 1%. The Nikkei in Tokyo fell 0.9% as renewed strength in the Japanese yen weighed.

On Tuesday, data showed U.S. job openings fell more than expected in April to the lowest in more than three years. Markets now are pricing in 45 basis points of easing this year from the Fed.

Traders are pricing in a 65% chance of a U.S. rate cut in September, up from 46% a week earlier, the CME FedWatch tool showed.

"Economic data in America are frankly weakening. In the past, such data caused a robust repricing and then nice rallies in the stock market. Now, this is somewhat less so," said Giuseppe Sersale, portfolio manager at Anthilia.

"The market seems to be shifting from a phase where it celebrated bad data to being a little afraid that the slowdown will be a little more pronounced. This explains why stocks have been moving sideways for several weeks now," he added.

In keeping with expectations of lower U.S. rates, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell to 4.2832%, the lowest in more than two months. [US/]

Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the benchmark for the euro zone, nudged lower to 2.527%, a day after its sharpest two-day drop since March.

The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against six peers, was 0.14% higher at 104.3, just above the near two-month low of 103.99 it hit on Tuesday. [FRX/]

The dollar's recent strength will ebb over the next 12 months, according to a Reuters poll of strategists.

The yen weakened to 156.09 per dollar, a day after it had strengthened to a more than two-week high of 154.55.

In Asia, Indian markets stayed in focus, with stocks jumping over 3% after key allies pledged their support to form a new government following a narrow win for PM Narendra Modi.

India's Nifty 50 rose 3.4% in volatile trading after sliding nearly 6% on Tuesday, a day in which foreign investors sold roughly $1.5 billion of shares.

© Reuters. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., June 3, 2024.  REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

In commodities, oil prices were above four-month lows as traders weighed an OPEC+ decision to boost supply later this year and an increase in U.S. crude and fuel stockpiles.

Brent crude futures were last at 78.46 per barrel, up 1.2%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures traded at $74.1 a barrel, also up 1.2%. [O/R]

Latest comments

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.