January of 2016 turned out to be a sorry starting month for the major indexes as the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 5.50%, the S&P 500 fell 5.86%, and the NASDAQ dropped 8.61%.
When 2015 started, the general consensus of most economists was that the economy would experience stronger growth than prior years, primarily because of a drop in energy prices. When 4th quarter GDP results came in at a very soft 0.7%, it cemented the year as being virtually identical to the previous one.
In 2015, GDP growth registered 2.4%. This was impacted by strong gains in the dollar against nearly every major currency. In sum, the dollar has appreciated nearly 30% over the last 2 years, and the continued strength has dramatically hurt U.S. exporters and corporations, with the majority of their revenues outside the country.
U.S. monetary policy makers announced no change in interest rate level or policy, and fed fund futures now show the market expecting the Reserve Board to only raise rates one more time during the rest of 2016.
The board has repeatedly insisted it is 'data dependent' and in official announcements continues to mention the prospect of inflation registering 2% annualized. Me thinks not, as commodity markets have cratered and global markets and central banks all over the world keep making plans to fight deflation, not inflation.
The divergence in central banking policy direction keeps currency and commodity traders busy and global investors guessing. As for most sectors of the U.S. economy, other than energy, materials, and heavy manufacturing, service-based companies are enjoying the benefits of cheap inputs and stable, but unexceptional demand.
Housing continues to make its way back as millenials try to find starter homes. Auto sales remain at all-time highs, although many believe they have reached a peak. The financial services area saw a record year in merger and acquisition transactions, which helped offset weak fixed income numbers. As for the equity markets, plenty believe high yield bond prices show equity indexes must either decline, or the bond market has current conditions wrong.
Time will tell, but if investors can plan on lower for longer, and GDP plods along at 2 to 2.5 percent, then I find it hard to see how equities remain a better alternative to plenty of other asset classes. One thing is for certain: we are going to find out.
Global Economic and Financial Market Outlook: Nowhere to Run, Nowhere to Hide as Nearly Every World Market Declined In January
(All country index data provided by the market data section of the Wall St Journal, January 30, 2015).
Like U.S. markets, international equities had a very difficult month in January. Virtually no individual market saw positive results as the beatings were consistent across the globe.
The worst hit geographies were the usual suspects, China's Shanghai Composite (-22.6%), the Hang Seng (Hong Kong -10.2%), and mainland China (-18.6%). Not pretty, not at all.
Japan (-8%), India (-4.8%), and Australia (-5.4%) suffered bearable losses, far lighter than China.
Most of Europe endured setbacks anywhere from 5-9%, with Italy having the worst hit (-12.9%).
As for the few pockets of sunshine, Indonesia (.5%), Thailand (1.0%), Hungary (.3%), Turkey (2.4%), Mexico (1.5%), and Chile (.4%) actually saw green totals.
Looking into the future, it is hard to see these kinds of losses as being sustainable, unless of course the world has a global recession. I suspect global margin calls, leverage in commodity and currency markets, and fund redemptions may have contributed to the carnage.
Sector Analysis: Rough Month For Every Area As Selling Prevailed
(All country index data is provided by the market data section of the Wall St Journal, January 30, 2015).
U.S. equity markets were clearly treacherous during January. Just to put some numbers behind the bloodletting, out of 11 major industry groups, only 2 saw positive returns, Utilities (+2.74%) and Telecommunications (+2.94%). Investors were essentially just trying to survive as defense won the day.
In a surprise, financials were hit very hard with a 15% haircut. Banks, asset managers, consumer finance groups, and specialty finance companies all endured deep sell offs.
Non-ferrous metals took it on the chin with a 34% decline, and paper was shellacked as well, down 26.67%.
Looking ahead, now is probably as good a time as any to look at hard-hit sectors like financials, oil, autos, travel, and Real Estate Investment Trusts. Patience, lots of research, and skepticism will aid you greatly in your quest.
The Art of Contrarian Thinking: Putting A Premium On Anecdotal Experience
Peter Lynch is one of the legends when it comes to equity investing. If there is a Mount Rushmore of investors, Ben Graham, Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, and John Templeton are probably the 4 most highly regarded investors ever.
Lynch ran the Fidelity Magellen fund for many years and built it from literally nothing to a fund with 20 years of outstanding performance and the most assets under management of any fund in the country. Essentially, he made Fidelity what it is.
Lynch was notorious for believing if you used a product frequently or visited a store a great deal, then it was a nice starting spot to look for stocks. He then emphasized it as a beginning point to doing the financial research on the company: balance sheet, profitability, cash flow, debt levels, etc.
You can learn a great deal by reading any or all of Mr. Lynch's books. He helped hook me on the stock market and I am forever grateful.
As for my own opinion on personal experiences and investing, I probably put even more of a premium on finding your own good possibilities from your life experiences. I can recall waiting in certain businesses and watching customer after customer and thinking to myself, this place must be making quite a bit of money. When you see or experience these kinds of situations, investment possibilities pop up, especially if the market is not valuing the business at a high price.
You can make up your own mind where these situations rank in terms of attractiveness, and this is crucial, because no matter who you are, each investor only has so much capital, especially if you do not use leverage.
Of note is to choose the 2 or 3 best situations or companies you would love to own a piece of and focus on why their results could continue and get better for both the foreseeable future and for many years. If the growth opportunities are immense, you just may have found a heck of an investment.
Disclaimer: Y H & C Investments, Yale Bock, and the family of Yale Bock own positions in securities mentioned in the article. Investing in stocks can lead to the complete loss of your capital. As always, on any company mentioned here, past performance is not a guarantee of future returns. Investing involves risk of losses on invested capital. One should research any investment and make sure it is suitable with your objectives, risk tolerance, risk profile liquidity considerations, tax situation, and anything else pertinent to your financial situation. Also, the CFA credential in no way implies investment returns will be superior for any charter holder.