📈 69% of S&P 500 stocks beating the index - a historic record! Pick the best ones with AI.See top stocks

Russell 2000 In Freefall Mode; Bearish Scenario To Spread To Other Indices

Published 03/25/2019, 01:04 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
NDX
-
US500
-
DJI
-
US2000
-
IXIC
-
DJT
-
SOX
-

The Russell 2000 was unable to make it past its 20-day MA as it reversed through its 50-day MA. The loss didn't make a huge technical difference as relative performance was already falling off a cliff, the MACD was already on a 'sell' trigger, and only -DI/+DI switched to a new 'sell' trigger. The next target is 1,444 which was the last swing low in January. Bulls will need to do a lot of convincing if this is to get near its 200-day MA anytime soon, so I would be looking for this bearish scenario to spread to other indices

RUT Daily Chart


With Small Caps leading losses lower it won't be long before other indices start feeling the pain. First strike on Large Caps was Friday's loss; in the case of the S&P there was a new all-time high on Thursday before Friday's near 2% loss struck. Friday's loss coincided with a 'sell' trigger in the MACD and On-Balance-Volume. This loss may be enough to register a new 'short trade' for the index which I have marked on the chart.

SPX Daily Chart


The NASDAQ suffered a 2.5% loss but it was not associated with a supporting technical 'sell' from indicators. While 20-day MA support is nearby I suspect the next real test will be the 200-day MA at 7,490. I'll be looking for more declines in the coming week with the Russell 2000 is freefall mode.

COMPQ Daily Chart


The NASDAQ 100 also posted a two-bar reversal which returned the index inside the rising channel. Of all the indices it has the best technical strength. The index has a little more of a buffer to its 20-day MA than the NASDAQ so buyers may feel more confident defending here first, although typical in false breakouts is a rapid fall back to channel support—before there is a quick break of said support.

NDX Daily Chart

Semiconductors also had a two-bar reversal, although this was not before Thursday's gain negated the February-March double top. Other bullish factors include the 'Golden Cross' between the 50-day and 200-day MA. While the two-bar reversal is often a powerful reversal signal there is proximity support to work with, chiefly former resistance of the double top at 1,390 but also the 20-day and 50-day MAs. Technicals are all bullish.

SOX Daily Chart


Of the breadth indices I follow, the relationship between the Dow Transports and Dow Jones Index took another step lower, continuing its freefall decline. This period of relative Transport under-performance dating back to 2015 has yet to be unleashed on the market, but it's hard to see how long the market can remain immune to this.

TRAN-INDU Weekly Chart

It remains to be seen what, if any impact Friday's Mueller's report will have on Monday's trading action. But given the Russell 2000 has been struggling since the middle of February I would not be expecting any bullish reaction to last very long without something more concrete economically to back it.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.