Data Remains Largely Neutral
All of the indexes closed lower Friday with negative internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes increased slightly on the NYSE from the prior session while those on the NASDAQ dipped. No important technical events occurred on the charts, leaving them evenly split regarding short term trends. The data remains mostly neutral as well. As such, we see ourselves maintaining our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes as we drift through the recent market doldrums.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed lower Friday with negative internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ. However, there were no technical events of import generated on the charts, leaving them in their current split status of near term uptrends and neutral sideways patterns as has been the case for the past several sessions. The SPX, DJI, COMPQX and NDX remain in short term uptrends with the rest neutral. The cumulative advance/decline lines are unchanged as well with the All Exchange and NYSE positive and above their 50 DMAs while the NASDAQ’s is neutral but also above its 50 DMA.
- The data also remains largely neutral including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:+12.41/-5.88 NYSE:+31.23/-7.03 NASDAQ:-4.56/-7.02). The Equity Put/Call Ratio (0.66) and OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio (44.1) are also neutral while the OEX P/C (0.95) and Total P/C (0.98) are both bullish. Valuation finds consensus forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX of $167.81 leaving the forward 12-month p/e for the SPX at 16.7 versus the “rule of 20” implied fair value of a 17.1 multiple and a 5.99% earnings yield.
- In conclusion, given the current state of the charts and data, we see no evidence presented to alter our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes at this time.
- SPX: 2,790/2,839
- DJI: 24,761/25,377
- NASDAQ: 7,691/NA
- NDX: 7,199/NA
- DJT: 10,436/10,771
- MID: 1,968/2,008
- Russell: 1,654/1,712
- VALUA: 6,365/6,487