1 Day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators Very Oversold
All of the major equity indexes closed notably lower Monday as the recent market selloff continued. Internals were very negative on the NYSE and NASDAQ as trading volumes rose from those of the prior session. More damage was seen on the charts with violations of support and 50 DMAs. With that said, we are altering our near term outlook from “neutral/negative” up to “neutral” for the reasons discussed below.
On the charts, all of the indexes closed deeply lower yesterday with broadly negative internals.
- Chart damage was seen on the SPX (page 2), DJI (page 2), COMPQX (page 3), NDX (page 3) and DJT (page 4) as all closed below their respective support levels and 50 DMAs.
- The MID (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) also broke support.
- All of the indexes are in short term downtrends and below their 50 DMAs. So why are we becoming less negative in our outlook?
- The NYSE saw close to 10:1 negative breadth and up/down volume yesterday. Such an extreme is usually seen near market lows.
- Also, bear in mind that since turning cautious Friday morning, the DJI has dropped approximately 1,700 from peak to trough.
- All of the stochastic levels are deeply oversold. They can stay that way for extended periods, but we view it as a potential positive.
- The high “volume at price” (VAP) levels are now seen as supportive on the SPX, DJI, COMPQX and NDX suggesting some possible stabilization.
- Unfortunately, this cannot be said for the MID, DJT and VALUA where they are seen as resistant.
The data has turned a bit more encouraging.
- All of the 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators are now deeply oversold suggesting a bounce or pause (All Exchange:-113.52 NYSE:-118.39 NASDAQ:-113.22).
- The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (37.3) remains neutral.
- Investor sentiment data (contrary indicator) is not available this morning but we would be quite surprised if we did not see a notable increase in bearish sentiment, creating the proverbial “wall of worry”.
- Valuation has now become quite compelling assuming current forward earnings estimates for the SPX hold. The 12-month forward consensus earnings estimate from Bloomberg for the SPX is now $172.55, leaving the forward p/e at a 16.5 multiple while the “rule of twenty” finds fair value at 18.3. This now suggests valuation is considerably more appealing now than just a few weeks ago.
- The 10-Year Treasury yield is 1.74%.
- The earnings yield stands at 6.06%.
In conclusion, while lacking some of the important sentiment data and the charts remaining in near term downtrends, there has been enough evidence presented in the form of extremely negative market breadth, high VAP support levels and deeply oversold OB/OS Oscillators to shift up to a “neutral” near term outlook from our prior “neutral/negative” view.