2019 is coming a close, and now as we turn towards next year, I present to you stock market predictions for 2020.
Here are my predictions so far: with global growth returning, the U.S. economy will surge to a 3% growth rate, U.S. rates on the rise, the U.S. dollar will sink, inflation will return, and commodities prices will soar. Investors will also heavily rotate into a reflation trade meaning, materials, industrials, energy, and financials stock will be among the best performing sectors in 2020.
The Reflation Trade 2020
If 2019 was the year for taking on risk, then 2020 will be all about the reflation trade and cyclical stocks rising. That means that the industrials, materials, energy, and financials stocks will take some of that bite away from the Semiconductor, Technology, and Biotechnology group’s which soared in 2019.
Industrials (XLI)
The Industrials ETF (XLI) has already broken out, rising above a great level of technical resistance $80.75. The XLI ETF has been holding above support at $80.75 and is forming a bullish pattern known as a pennant. It means the sector is poised to rally in the weeks and months ahead, potentially by as much 15% to $93.25.
Material (XLB)
The Materials ETF (XLB) is very close to first breaking out and that could send the ETF back to all-time highs around $64.20. However, the gains could grow much large should the ETF rise above $64.20, potentially rising to as high as $67.50, an increase of 11%
Energy (XLE)
Meanwhile, the Energy ETF XLE is nearing a significant breakout of its own after it rising above two downtrends, and is now heading to resistance at $63.40. It could result in the ETF rising to around $68.90, a jump of almost 11.5%.
Financials (XLF)
Finally, rising yields and widening spreads will help to lift the bank stocks in 2020. The XLF ETF is at its highest level since 2008 and is on the verge of a massive break out should it rise above resistance at $31. It could result in the ETF rising to around $36.60, a gain of 17%.
It makes these four sectors the must-watch groups of 2020 and prediction 4 for 2020.