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Stocks choppy, Kiwi soars after rate cut

Published 08/11/2016, 08:25 AM
© Reuters. A worker shelters from the rain as he passes the London Stock Exchange in the City of London
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By Marc Jones

LONDON (Reuters) - World shares hovered close to one-year highs on Thursday as oil prices dropped for a third straight day and the latest interest rate cut in a developed market - this time New Zealand - got a lukewarm response from investors.

The slip in crude markets left energy firms and London's FTSE (FTSE) backpeddling, though a sharp jump in consumer goods stocks lifted the rest of Europe (FTEU3) ahead of what was expected to be a 0.2 percent higher start for Wall Street. (N) (ESc1) .

The Kiwi dollar was the day's big mover though, as a smaller-than-expected quarter-point cut from the country's central bank left those who had been betting on a more aggressive move caught short.

It bounded more than 1 percent to $0.7351, its highest level since May 2015, before edging back slightly to $0.7275 as policymakers underscored they could act again. [FRX/]

"The RNBZ obviously cut rates but it didn't quite live up to expectations," said head of global macro strategy at State Street Global Markets. Michael Metcalfe.

"It is a theme we have had a couple of times this year and is part of these ongoing questions about the efficacy of central bank policy."

Those issues surfaced in Scandinavia too, where Sweden's crown hit a seven-week high against the euro (EURSEK=D4) as stronger-than-expected inflation, a day after a similar reading from Norway, fed doubts about further easing there.

Currency markets' broader focus remained on whether U.S. interest rates will rise this year, with traders looking ahead to speeches by Federal Reserve officials culminating in Fed Chair Janet Yellen's Aug. 26 address at the Jackson Hole symposium.

The dollar index, which measures its value against a basket of six major currencies, was at 95.665 (DXY), holding close to a near one-week low of 95.442 with the euro also slightly weaker at $1.1165 .

"A Fed rate hike still seems like a long-term prospect in the current markets and we would expect that the carry-seeking behavior will continue to support the Antipodean currencies," analysts at Credit Agricole (PA:CAGR) said in a note, referring to the Australian and New Zealand dollars.

GREAT FALL OF CHINA

U.S. traders were readying for weekly jobless claims data due at 1230 GMT (0830 ET), expecting a drop after a small rise last week.

Markets were also marking the one-year anniversary of China devaluing the yuan, a move that roiled global markets.

The Chinese currency was fixed a touch higher by the People's Bank of China in Beijing although it softened a touch in spot markets during the day. [CNY/]

It has dropped 8 percent against the dollar since last year's landmark devaluation and more than 10 percent against a broader list of world currencies the PBOC monitors.

"I still think investors are trying to hang in there for the rally and while the general opinion seems to be that the Chinese authorities have steadied the ship, it is still a bit too early to draw that conclusion," said Cliff Tan, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ's east Asia head of global markets research.

Risk appetite was kept in check as Brent oil prices fell as low as $43.46 per barrel. They struggled back to $44 as this week's news of a jump in U.S. government stockpiles and record output from Saudi Arabia was offset slightly by the International Energy Agency predicting crude markets would rebalance in the next few months after years of overproduction.

Singapore, Asia's bellwether for trade, had also weighed on sentiment as it cut its economic forecast for the year. [O/R]

Europe's energy sector (SXEP) was among the worst-performing of the major equity groups, falling 0.5 percent. But gains in consumer goods stocks including Adidas (DE:ADSGn) and Henkel - which hit a record high after posting strong results - helped the pan-regional FTSEurofirst 300 (FTEU3) edge up 0.35 percent.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) fell 0.5 percent. It hit a one-year high on Wednesday and since end-June has broadly outperformed the MSCI world index (MIWO00000PUS), which traded flat.

Hong Kong (HSI) and Indonesia (JKSE) led Asian gainers. Japan's markets (N225) are closed for a holiday.

THE SPAIN GAIN

In bond markets, strong demand for government debt at auctions continued to hold down yields.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note (US10YT=RR) extended a recent fall to 1.508 percent while the yield on 10-year UK gilts tumbled to a record low of 0.52 percent.

Spanish government bond yields also hit a record trough as acting prime minister Mariano Rajoy edged closer to securing a second term in office, which would end a near eight-month political deadlock.

Madrid's benchmark yields hit 0.944 percent and were at the tightest spread all year to German equivalents at 112 basis points, according to Tradeweb data.

Lower-rated euro zone government bonds have rallied broadly this week on expectations that the European Central Bank will move further down the ratings spectrum to fulfill its asset purchase program.

© Reuters. A worker shelters from the rain as he passes the London Stock Exchange in the City of London

"Spain is clearly below the 1 percent mark now, partly on hopes that the political risks have come down and that a third election could be avoided," said Christoph Rieger, rates strategist for Commerzbank (DE:CBKG).

(Additional Reporting by Abhinav Ramnarayan Anirban Nag and Sudip Kar-Gupta; editing by John Stonestreet)

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