👀 Ones to watch: The MOST undervalued stocks to buy right nowSee Undervalued Stocks

Will the Fed Shock the Markets With a Series of Rate Hikes?

Published 11/21/2022, 02:54 AM
US500
-
DJI
-
CL
-
IXIC
-

According to JP Morgan, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 100 basis points, specifically by 50 basis points in December, 25bp in February, and another 25bp in March 2023. In other words, until the beginning of spring, as reported by the American bank, the maximum interest rate will reach 500 bp, i.e., 5%.

As can be seen, financial conditions tend, based on this scenario, to tighten dangerously, sacrificing growth and jobs on the altar of taming inflationary pressures. And as the late Rudiger Dornbusch is quoted as saying, no postwar expansion died of old age because they were all killed by the Fed, except, of course, the postmodern recessions of '01 and '08 that were more associated with price bubbles of assets despite aggressive Fed actions.

At the same time, we also had the brief (but severe) COVID-19 recession, which is hard to blame the Fed for. In any case, despite warnings, most postwar expansions were indeed killed by Fed tightening. And the Fed is currently tightening as fast as ever.
A 4-quarter recession probability survey.

For this reason, JP Morgan believes that Fed will increase by 100 bp before going into hibernation next spring. So, it makes sense that analysts are more convinced than ever that there will be a recession next year.

Why not a soft landing, as Mr. Powel is considering? Because it would be nice to think that the US Federal Reserve could gently raise the unemployment rate by 0.5-1.0% to restore balance in the labor market, but the cyclical behavior of the unemployment rate exhibits both asymmetries and non-linearities and resembles when goes down with the escalator and up with the elevator.

Therefore, a demand slowdown is expected, eventually leading to labor market weakness. In this context, it is going to be lost more than 1M jobs by the middle of '24. It is also believed that this labor market weakness will convince the Fed that it has built up enough deflationary momentum to start easing its policy towards a more neutral stance.


Fed funds rate - actual vs. forecast.

Markets on a weekly basis had a mixed picture where S&P 500 lost -0,69%, Dow Jones Industrial Average lost -0,01%, Nasdaq Composite lost -1,18%, and DAX in Europe gained +1,46%.

Latest comments

Loading next article…
Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
© 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.