Data Remains Mostly Neutral
The indexes closed mixed Monday with negative internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals saw negative breadth but positive up/down volume. The NDX made another new closing high but the near term trends remain a mix of positive and neutral charts. The data remains largely neutral as well while valuation has crept closer to being fairly valued. Progress has slowed as was speculated in some of our recent comments. We suspect this is largely due to heading into a deluge of earnings reports that will likely have influence over the near term. So for now, we have yet to see enough of a shift in the charts and data to alter our near term “neutral/positive” outlook.
On the charts, the indexes closed mixed yesterday with the SPX (page 2), COMPQX (page 3) and NDX (page 3) closing higher as the rest declined.
- Trading volumes were below those of the prior session and relatively light. Internals were negative on the NYSE and mixed on the NASDAQ.
- While the NDX made a new closing high, the MID (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) are now in neutral trends with the rest positive.
- The NASDAQ cumulative A/D has slipped to neutral as well with the All Exchange and NYSE positive.
- Overall, the chart progress has been slowing with some moderation in breadth.
The data remains largely neutral including all of the 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:-39.51 NYSE:-41.67 NASDAQ:-37.4).
- The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio remains neutral at 39.9 although showing a dip in buying.
- The % of SPX stocks trading above their 50 DMAs is neutral with a 69.9% reading.
- Crowd sentiment readings remain neutral with a neutral 0.71 detrened Rydex Ratio and 25.0/36.0 AAII Bear/Bull Ratio.
- The 12 month forward consensus earnings estimate from Bloomberg for the SPX now stands at $171.86, leaving the forward p/e at a 16.9 multiple while the “rule of twenty” finds fair value at 17.4. The narrowing of this spread over the past few weeks appears to have had some impact regarding the slowing of the pace of progress.
In conclusion, while we are maintaining our near term market outlook at “neutral/positive”, given the narrowing of the valuation spread and moderation in market progress, we suspect it will require some positive surprises and guidance from companies as we start the onslaught of earnings reports to keep the indexes marching higher.