Data Turns CautionaryOpinion
All of the indexes closed higher Tuesday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes slipped below that of the prior session on the NYSE while the NASDAQ’s rose. One positive technical event occurred on the charts as other indexes stalled at resistance. The data has turned somewhat cautionary. Given the news out of the White House that is putting pressure on the futures, while we maintain our near tern “neutral” outlook for the equity indexes, there is a likelihood that near term support levels on the charts may be tested during the next few sessions, in our opinion.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ. One index saw some positive technical events as the RTY (page 5) closed above near term resistance as well as its 50 DMA. However, COMPQX (page 3), NDX (page 3) and MID (page 4) all closed at their resistance levels, unable to violate. The action left all of the indexes in what we view as sideways consolidation patterns post the February declines. The cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange and NYSE remain neutral while the NASDAQ A/D has turned positive. All are now back above their 50 DMAs.
- The data is now casting some overhanging clouds as all of the 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators have slipped into overbought territory with the 21-day levels remaining neutral (All Exchange:+53.23/+29.99 NYSER:+55.14/+35.66 NASDAQ:+55.05/+29.87). The Equity and OEX Put/Call Ratios are bearish at 0.52 and 1.68 respectfully The Total P/C is bullish at 0.93. The OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio is a neutral 32.6.
- In conclusion, while we remain of the opinion that the major equity indexes continue to be in neutral sideways patterns as they attempt to stabilize post the February selloff, the futures, in combination with the charts and data, suggest the near term support levels for the indexes may be tested over the next few sessions.