Asian stock markets moved away from two-month highs early on Tuesday and commodities retreated after an oil rally was halted by a decline that started a profit-centered selloff. A recent batch of Chinese economic data has shown that exports performed better than expected while imports missed previous forecasts. Exports have fallen 3.7% despite forecasts of a 6.3% decline. Imports, on the other hand, moved lower than expected with a large 20% decline. While the data does indeed reflect some of Beijing’s latest measures to support exporters, namely the devaluation of the yen, it has not done much to dispel concerns over a slowdown in the second-largest world economy. One aspect that analysts do agree on, however, is that Chinese authorities will likely implement more stimulus measures. In their most recent move, China’s central bank revealed a plan on Monday to allow banks to issue loans more easily, an action that has resulted in the two-month highs seen Yesterday. Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Asia Pacific ex Japan Hedged Equity (N:DBAP) broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan declined 0.9% from Monday’s two-month highs. Regardless, the benchmark was up 7.7% this month alone. The Japanese Nikkei 225 dropped 1.1% and the Shanghai Composite was lower by 0.5%. Between mid-June and late August, Shanghai shares have declined 45%.
U.S. shares posted modest gains as traders await third quarter earnings reports in a low-volume trading day. Most banks and federal institutions remained closed for the Columbus Day holiday. Major benchmarks have risen since the October 2 release of the latest U.S. jobs data. The report’s weak results have prompted stock market gains due the likelihood of soft employment data pushing back an interest rate hike which would strengthen the dollar and limit many corporations’ revenue. The S&P 500 500 Index added 2.57 points, or 0.13%, to trade at 2,017.46 as eight its ten sectors rose. The utilities and consumer discretionary sectors led the gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 47.3 points, or 0.28%, to trade at 17,131.46 as the index extended it winning streak to seven days – the longest since late 2014. The Nasdaq Composite rose 8.17 points, or 0.17%, to trade at 4,838.64. The low trading volume has been reflected by the CBOE Volatility Index, which has fallen to 16.2, far below its long-term average of around 20.
This week’s major economic data releases begin today with the release of the UK year-over-year inflation rate and the German economic sentiment index. The Chinese year-over-year inflation rate will be released on Wednesday followed by UK unemployment and U.S. retail sales. U.S. core inflation rate will be released on Thursday.