21-Day McClellan OB/OS OverboughtOpinion
Most of the indexes closed higher Tuesday with the one exception of the DJT. Internals were positive on the NYSE and NASDAQ as NYSE volumes were flat versus the prior session while NASDAQ volumes declined. Several more new closing highs were achieved on the charts. The data has turned a bit more cautionary although not extremely so, leading us to the opinion that the near term trends of the charts should continue to be respected until proven otherwise, although progress may become a bit more difficult to achieve over the near term.
- On the charts, the only index to close lower yesterday was the DJT (page 4) as the rest posted new closing highs. Internals were positive on the NYSE and NASDAQ. As such, all of the near term uptrends remain intact as do those on the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ. The stochastic levels are deeply into overbought territory but have not flashed any caution signals at this stage. They can stay overbought for extended periods. We would also note that uptrend lines on the NDX (page 3) and SPX (page 2) are in their second extension from their original uptrends. In our experience, such extensions can sometimes prove to be culminations of trend. However, it is too early to make that call at this time. Nonetheless, we believe it is worth noting.
- The data is mixed. While the McClellan 1 day OB/OS Oscillators remain neutral, the 21-day readings are now overbought (All Exchange:+29.12/+58.05 NYSE:+20.84/+63.93 NASDAQ:+39.86/+55.12). The Total and Equity Put/Call Ratios (contrary indicators) are bearish showing the crowd weighted in calls at 0.64 and 0.52 respectively. These are being counterbalanced by a bullish 0.73 OEX Put/Call Ratio as the pros are long calls as well. The OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio remains neutral at 34.5 while investor sentiment via the Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) shows extreme enthusiasm on the part of advisors at 12.7/66.7 and bearish.
- In conclusion, while we remain of the opinion that the current near term uptrends of the indexes should still be respected until proven otherwise, some evidence is appearing suggesting further progress may be more difficult to achieve.