Data Mostly NeutralOpinion
The indexes closed mixed Wednesday with mixed internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were positive. Volumes rose from the prior session on both exchanges. One new closing high was achieved on the charts while another gave a potential warning signal. All of the short term uptrends remain intact. The data is largely neutral. So in spite of valuation remaining at its new peak level, the charts and data suggest the current near-term uptrends should continue to be respected until proven otherwise.
- On the charts, the MID (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) closed lower yesterday as the rest advanced modestly. The NYSE saw positive breadth but negative up/down volume with the NASDAQ internals positive. The DJT (page 3) made a new closing high as the SPX (page 2) gave a “bearish stochastic crossover” signal. Again, we would note such signals become “actionable” if support or trend is violated. That has not happened yet. All of the near term uptrends remain intact with the cumulative advance/decline lines positive on the All Exchange and NYSE with the NASDAQ A/D neutral.
- The data is not yielding any strong implications as it is largely neutral, including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:+8.48/+19.34 NYSE:+14.94/+41.47 NASDAQ:-1.66/-0.52). The OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio (46.2) and OEX Put/Call Ratio (1.22) are also neutral with the Total and Equity Put/Call Ratios counterbalancing with a mildly bullish 0.95 and mildly bearish 0.55 respectively. The new AAII Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) finds an increase in bullish sentiment but remains neutral at 29.0/43.67.
- In conclusion, in spite of high historical valuation, we have yet to see enough evidence to alter our opinion that the near term uptrends of the indexes should be respected until proven otherwise.