👀 Ones to watch: The MOST undervalued stocks to buy right nowSee Undervalued Stocks

Short-Term Trends Remain Neutral/Positive

Published 10/18/2019, 10:16 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
NDX
-
US500
-
DJI
-
RTYZ24
-
IXIC
-
DJT
-
US10YT=X
-
MID
-

NASDAQ 1-Day McClellan OB/OS Mildly Overbought

All of the major equity indexes closed higher Thursday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ with a slight lift in overall trading volumes from the prior trading session. While one index closed above near term resistance, none managed to alter their short term trends that remain a mix of positive and neutral. However, the intermediate trend of the NASDAQ’s cumulative advance/decline is of concern as discussed below. The data is generally neutral with the exception of one McClellan OB/OS Oscillator being mildly overbought and bearish. As such, we are of the opinion that the current state of the charts and data is guiding us to maintain our near term “neutral” outlook for the major equity indexes at this time.

On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals on slightly stronger trading volumes.

  • The only technical event of import was the MID (page 5) closing above its near term resistance.
  • Yet that achievement was not sufficient to alter its near term neutral trend as is also the case on the DJI (page 2), DJT (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5).
  • Said trends are positive on the SPX (page 2), COMPQX (page 3) and NDX (page 3).
  • The short term cumulative advance/decline lines remain positive on the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ.
  • However, the NASDAQ’s intermediate term trend remains troubling, in our view, as while the COMPQX approaches its recent all-time highs, its cumulative a/d is making a significantly lower high than that registered at its September peak. It suggests a significant deterioration of the number of stocks in that index managing to participate in rallies.
  • The stochastics remain overbought on most of the indexes while high “volume at price” (VAP) levels are supportive on the SPX, DJI, COMPQX and NDX while resistance on the rest.

The data remains mostly neutral including all of the 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators with the exception of the NASDAQ’s 1 day that is now mildly overbought (All Exchange:+43.01 NYSE:+35.26 NASDAQ:+53.16).

  • The detrended Rydex Ratio (contrary indicator) is bullish at -2.03 suggesting a more cautious crowd outlook.
  • The % of SPX stocks trading above their 50 DMAs is a neutral 64.0%. This week’s AAII Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicators) also turned bullish at 38.67/23.33, echoing the Rydex data.
  • However, the Investor’s Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) remained bearish at 17.2/47.6 suggesting an excess of bullish sentiment on the part of investment advisors continues.
  • The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio is neutral at 47.7.
  • Valuation seems appealing, but a bit less so, with forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX slipping again to $173.80 via Bloomberg, leaving the forward p/e at a 17.2 multiple while the “rule of twenty” finds fair value at 18.3.
  • The 10-Year Treasury yield stands at 1.76%.
  • The earnings yield is 5.8%.
  • SPX: 2,937/3,005
  • DJI: 26,440/27,035
  • Nasdaq: 7,977/8,173
  • NDX: 7,747/7,986
  • DJT: 10,109/10,409
  • MID: 1,903/1,945
  • Russell: 1,494/1,544
  • VALUA: 6,066/6,207
  • Latest comments

    Loading next article…
    Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.
    Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.
    Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.
    It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.
    Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.
    © 2007-2024 - Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.