Some New Closing Highs PostedOpinion
All of the indexes closed higher Monday with positive internals. Volumes rose above the prior session but remained rather subdued. Breadth remains positive while some new closing highs were registered on the charts as the short term uptrend lines remain intact. The data continues to send a rather neutral signal. As such, we see nothing at this stage to alter our near term “neutral/positive” short term outlook for the major indexes while extended valuation keeps us “neutral” for the more intermediate term.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher yesterday with the SPX (page 2), DJI (page 2), COMPQX (page 3), MID (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) making new closing highs. Internals were positive as volumes rose but remained muted. The RUT (page 4) closed at its short term resistance level. All of the index short term uptrend lines are intact as the advance/decline lines remain positive for the near term. Thus there is nothing on the charts to cause a change in our current near term outlook.
- The data remains mostly neutral, including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:+8.46/+40.62 NYSE:-0.92/+48.92 NASDAQ:+17.8/+32.71). The Gambill Insider Buy/Sell Ratio is neutral as well at 12.8. While the Equity Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) is sending a bearish signal showing the crowd long calls at 0.51, the OEX Put/Call Ratio (smart money) is counterbalancing the scales with a bullish 0.8 as the pros are now long calls and looking for some near term strength. As such, the general tone of the data remains neutral.
- In conclusion, the charts and data continue to imply a “neutral/positive” outlook for the major indexes over the short term. However, high valuation of the SPX keeps our intermediate term view at “neutral”.