Data Unavailable
Opinion: Most of the indexes closed higher Friday with the one exception of the COMPQX. Internals were positive as volumes grew on both exchanges. No significant technical events occurred but a couple of minor warnings surfaced. The data is unavailable this morning. However, given the generally muted action on Friday, we suspect their levels to be little changed and largely in the neutral camp. As such, our near term outlook remains “neutral” while the intermediate term stays “neutral” as well, largely due to forward valuation remaining near historic highs.
- On the charts, only the COMPQX (page 3) closed lower Friday as it tested its short term uptrend line. Most closed near their intraday highs, again with the exception of the COMPQX that closed near its midpoint. The RUT (page 4) closed at resistance. The end result was no technical signals of significance were generated. However, the SPX (page 2) and COMPQX both gave “bearish stochastic crossover signals” implying some weakening of their current trends may be at hand. Violations of support would be required to validate the stochastic signals. That has yet to transpire.
- The data is unavailable this morning. However, given the mostly subdued movement on Friday, we suspect they are little changed and largely neutral. The increased activity of insider selling remains a point of concern, however.
- In conclusion, we see nothing at this point to alter our near term “neutral” outlook for the indexes based on the current state of the charts and data.
- For the intermediate term, we remain “neutral” as the forward 12 month p/e based on IBES forward 12 month earnings estimates has lifted to a 16.9 multiple and just shy of the level seen prior to the January correction.
- Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from IBES of $123.58 leave a 5.91% forward earnings yield on a 16.9 forward multiple.
SPX: 2,074/2,106
DJI: 17,541/8,114
COMPQX; 4,836/5,001
DJT: 7,921/8,239
MID: 1,451/1,491
RUT: 1,093/1,146
VALUA: 4,525/4,685