Data Unavailable
Opinion: All of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals as volumes declined from the prior session. Prices closed at varying points within their intraday ranges as volumes declined from the prior session. More resistance levels were violated, keeping the chart outlooks positive. Unfortunately, the data is not available this morning with one exception. That said, we suspect the data is likely to still be expressing a cautionary tone, given the extent of the current rally, that tempers our enthusiasm while our near term outlook remains “neutral/positive” until the charts suggest otherwise.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals. While breadth and volume were positive, they were less so than seen over the prior few sessions. Nonetheless, the charts remain positive as the COMPQX (page 3), MID (page 4), RUT (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) all closed above their respective near term resistance levels. The SPX (page 2) made a new closing all-time high. The DJT (page 3) tested resistance but failed to violate on a closing basis. All of the near term uptrends remain intact. While all of the stochastic levels are now overbought, they can stay in that posture for extended periods. As such, until bearish crossovers are generated, their warning signals are not actionable.
- Almost all of the data is unavailable this morning with the exception of the WST Ratio and its Composite that are both bearish at 72.87 and 162.7 respectively. We believe it is likely that all of the data warning signals discussed yesterday have intensified to some degree. There current state implies the recent rally is extended with short term risk elevating. However, the charts remain the dominant factor in our analysis.
- In conclusion, our near term outlook remains “neutral/positive” largely due to the condition of the charts. However, within that framework, the data suggests any buying should be done prudently as some eventual retracement, suggested by the data, is a reasonable expectation.
- Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from IBES of $125.35 leave a 5.87% forward earnings yield on a 17.0 forward multiple.
SPX: 2,099/NA
DJI: 17,922/18,289
COMPQX; 4,877/5,023
DJT: 7,507/7,756
MID: 1,489/1,539
RUT: 1,146/1,190
VALUA: 4,630/4,793