McClellan 1 Day OB/OS Oscillators Neutral
Opinion: All of the indexes closed lower Wednesday with negative internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as NYSE volumes rose from the prior session while NASDAQ volume declined. One of the indexes closed below near term support while several took on a more neutral tone. The data remains a mixed bag but the 1 day OB/OS levels have dropped to neutral from their prior overbought readings. As such, while some of the charts received moderating signals suggesting a more neutral tone, we remain “neutral/positive” in our near term outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed lower yesterday with negative internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as all closed at or near their intraday lows. Some deterioration was seen on the DJI (page 2) as it closed below near term support as well as its near term uptrend line. The DJT (page 4) close back below its 50 DMA Several near term uptrends lines were violated as well with the DJT being the only one not violating said uptrend. Bearish stochastic crossovers were seen on the SPX (page 2) and DJT. However, in spite of these events, most support levels held while trends turned more neutral in nature as opposed to negative. We would also note that while the cumulative advance/decline lines dipped, they remain in uptrends and above their 50 DMAs. As such, we are of the opinion that the bulk of the indexes are likely going through a period of consolidation post the rally from the late February lows, given their current conditions.
- The data is mixed. What may be most important is all of the 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators have dropped back into neutral territory from their previous overbought conditions that we suspect were the cause for recent weakness (All Exchange:+28.09/+59.88 NYSE:+27.8/+61.49 NASDAQ:+27.7/+64.09). The 21 day levels remain overbought. Regarding the put/call ratios, the OEX remains bearish at 1.89 with the pros staying weighted in puts while the Total P/C (contrary indicator) is a bullish 1.05 as the crowd has grown nervous and is also heavy in puts. The Equity P/C is a neutral 0.69. The OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio remains a neutral 32.0.
- In conclusion, while the charts have weakened a bit over the past two sessions, we do not believe enough evidence has been presented to warrant a shift in our “neutral/positive” near term outlook for the major equity indexes.
- Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from Bloomberg are $157.81 leaving a 5.74% forward earnings yield on a 17.4 forward multiple.