Data Largely NeutralOpinion
All of the indexes closed higher Thursday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as NYSE volumes dipped from the prior session while NASDAQ volumes rose. There was one minor improvement on the charts as well as the cumulative advance/decline lines but no resistance levels were violated. The data is largely neutral. So while the bulk of the indexes remain in near term downtrends, we remain of the opinion that the charts, data and valuation suggest a near term “neutral” outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher Thursday with positive internals. No resistance levels were violated but the DJT (page 4) did manage to close above its short term downtrend line turning the trend form negative to neutral. The rest of the indexes remain in near term downtrends. Some improvement was also seen in the cumulative advance/decline lines as both the All Exchange and NYSE turned neutral with the NASDAQ’s staying negative. They all remain below their 50 DMAs. The stochastic levels discussed recently remain oversold but have yet to trigger bullish crossover signals. We still need to see violations of resistance to become more positive from a chart viewpoint.
- The data is largely neutral including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:-20.66/+8.26 NYSE:-4.35/+13.44 NASDAQ:-38.15/+6.49). The Equity Put/Call Ratio and OpenInsider Buy/Sell Ratio are neutral as well at 0.63 and 67.5 respectively. The Total (0.95) and OEX Put/Call Ratio (67.5) are mildly bullish.
- In conclusion, the bounce we were expecting discussed last week occurred on Thursday. However, it was not enough to cause us to alter our near term “neutral” outlook for the major equity indexes.