1-Day McClellan OB/OS OverboughtOpinion
The indexes closed higher Monday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes rose on the NYSE and dipped on the NASADAQ versus the prior session. Multiple resistance levels were violated on the charts as well as some 50 DMAs being recovered. The data is mixed with the 1-day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators now in overbought territory suggesting some slowing in progress. As such, the OB/OS data combined with the charts suggests we maintain our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals on both exchanges as volumes rose slightly on the NYSE as NASDAQ volumes dipped. Virtually every index, with the one exception of the MID (page 4), closed above their respective near term resistance levels while the DJT (page 4), RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5) also moved back above their 590 DMAs. As such, all of the indexes are in short term uptrends with the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ positive and above their 50 DMAs. One caveat we would note is that the stochastic levels that were oversold at the recent index nadirs have reversed and are now all in overbought territory. While that is not necessarily negative as they can remain overbought for extended periods, they imply further progress may be tougher to achieve. We would also note the chart of the 10 Year Treasury yield closed below its nearly vertical uptrend line from the beginning of January, thus suggesting a pause in bond market weakness may be at hand.
- The data is mixed. We now find all of the 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators in overbought territory (All Exchange:+54.53/-28.46 NYSE:+69.27/-22.0 NASDAQ:+59.44/-17.92) versus their deeply oversold conditions at the recent market lows. Our interpretation is they suggest some slowing of progress as overbought risk has elevated. The OEX and Total Out/Call Ratios are bullish at 0.93 and 0.98 respectively with the Equity P/C a neutral 0.59.
- In conclusion, the combination of positive chart trends juxtaposed to the OB/OS data suggest we maintain our near term “neutral/positive” outlook for the major equity indexes for the near term.