Currencies
EUR/USD – recent comments from several FED officials have lifted the chance for a March rate hike, which has risen to nearly 70%, have strengthened the USD. As a result, we are seeing a renewed attempt to break below the 1.05 level. Some weaker US data yesterday caused some upside, but this proved to be short-lived as inflation data indicates a still rising inflation. In addition, the speech of President Trump before Congress on Tuesday was able to lift the USD, and we see that it has reinforced the USD bulls once again. Today we will get inflation data out of the Eurozone.
USD/JPY – climbed to the highest level in 2 weeks on the backdrop of the strengthening USD. We can see there is a level of support around the mid-111 level, as we are trying on the other hand to break above the 115.6 level in order to get a confirmation of a change of direction. Tomorrow we have some data out of Japan as well with of which the most important will be the inflation data.
GBP/USD – saw a solid drop after the manufacturing data disappointed and also renewed uncertainty regarding the Brexit. This in addition to the stronger USD has sent the pair to the lowest level since mid-January. Today we will have the construction PMI which is expected to show no change at 52.2.
USD/CAD – moved higher, not only due to the stronger USD, and also not because of the drop in oil prices. Another reason is that the BOC decided to keep the interest rate unchanged, which in itself didn’t come as a surprise, but it has signaled that it would keep the interest rate at the same level for longer. Today we will also get the GDP data out of Canada.
USD/ZAR – after breaking below the support level, we have dropped to the lowest level in 18 months as it is attempting to reconquer this level.
Bitcoin – continues to soar to new highs and it looks like only a serious attempt by the PBOC or the Chinese government can cause a serious reversal, although we have seen that the impact of these measures is becoming less and lasts for less time as well. Nevertheless, we are in uncharted territory.
Indices
Dax 30 – has risen to the highest level in nearly a year and is getting closer to its record high which was reached around the same time.
Dollar Index – with the prospects of a rate hike this month rising we see the Dollar Index move higher as well and it is now trading at the highest level in nearly 2 months.
Dow Jones 30 – is on a great streak and after breaking through the magical 20,000 level just over a month ago, we have now added another 1,000 points and are trading over the 21,000 level. The Dow Jones had its best day yet this year and rose with over 300 points.
Nasdaq 100 – with US index soaring to new highs, also the Nasdaq marked a new record high. The main reason for the boost is the optimistic tone of President Trump’s address to Congress, which reiterated his main points.
S&P 500 – Could obviously not stay behind and also closed at record high and even shorty crossed the 2400 level.
XLF – after having broken through the resistance around the 23.71 level, we have seen another significant move higher. The expected tax cuts and deregulation is what is definitely boosting financials.
Commodities
Gold – due to the increased chances of an imminent rate hike we see that gold is pressured and has been moving down, obviously because, as a result the USD has strengthened. On the other hand, however, we can see that gold is still trading at relatively high levels, in part because of the uncertain upcoming events such as the elections in France.
Silver – gold and silver usually move in tandem as they are both precious metals, but we can see on the below chart that we are starting to see discrepancy in the price movement. The main question is obviously if it will be silver moving to gold, or gold moving to silver.
Oil – is once again dropping as it has been lingering around the support/resistance around the 54 level. The inventories rose once more and with that reached a new record high. In addition, we see that production in the US also continued to increase and is now well above 9 mbpd. On the other side we continue to see a good compliance level, mainly from Saudi Arabia which is also scaling back exports. However, a lot of other countries are showing a much lower level of compliance, which could cause Saudi Arabia to change its stance.
Stocks
McDonald’s – with a decline in performance, McDonald’s keeps on looking for ways to grow again. While offering breakfast all-day improved things a bit, it didn’t do so for long. Now it is looking to change the way it works and will start deliveries, a huge market which it hasn’t set foot in yet but will set into soon.
Snapchat – one of the more anticipated and larger IPO’s in recent years is Snapchat. Today trading will commence as the start price is $17 a share, which means that the company has a market value of $20 billion.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) – The US is obviously the largest and most important at the moment for the company, but China is proving to be an important growth engine, with revenue tripling from China. Both China and the US account to around 75% of the revenue of Tesla. It is looking to set foot, and make a play for the Russian market as well in the near future.