Breaking News
Get 45% Off 0
🌊 NVIDIA ripple effect: Track AI stocks' response to chip giant's earnings
Explore AI Stocks

Charts Imply Short-Term Bottom Achieved

By Guy S. Ortmann, CMTETFsAug 08, 2019 10:11AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/charts-imply-shortterm-bottom-achieved-200452922
Charts Imply Short-Term Bottom Achieved
By Guy S. Ortmann, CMT   |  Aug 08, 2019 10:11AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 
 
NDX
-0.06%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
US500
-0.20%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
DJI
-0.59%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
US2000
-0.01%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
IXIC
-0.01%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 
DJT
-0.24%
Add to/Remove from Watchlist
Add to Watchlist
Add Position

Position added successfully to:

Please name your holdings portfolio
 

  • Internals were negative on the NYSE while the NASDAQ saw negative breadth but positive up/down volume.
  • Overall trading volumes increased from those of the prior session while most indexes saw significant intraday reversals to the upside with the gainers closing at or near their intraday highs.
  • A number of the charts saw action we believe to be suggestive that some near term bottoms have been achieved in the following fashion.
  • The SPX (page2) tested its support successfully while closing near resistance and generating a “bullish stochastic crossover”.
  • The DJI (page 2) had the same chart action as the SPX although closing slightly lower on the day.
  • The COMPQX and NDX both saw “bullish stochastic crossovers” as well as “bullish engulfing patterns” that occur when a stock or index opens below the prior day’s open and closes above the prior day’s close with the NDX closing at resistance.
  • The DJT (page 4) tested support and may have formed a “hammer” suggesting a washout of the sellers.
  • The MID (page 4) saw a “bullish stochastic crossover” as well as a “bullish engulfing pattern”.
  • The VALUA (page 5) tested support successfully while forming a “hammer” also suggesting a washout of sellers.
  • However, no resistance levels were actually violated and, in our opinion, remain formidable.
  • The data is largely unavailable this morning.

    Valuation remains compelling assuming current forward earnings estimates for the SPX hold. The 12-month forward consensus earnings estimate from Bloomberg for the SPX is now $172.29, leaving the forward p/e at a 16.7 multiple while the “rule of twenty” finds fair value at 18.3. This suggests valuation is considerably more appealing now than just a few weeks ago.

  • The 10-Year Treasury yield is 1.68%.
  • The earnings yield stands at 5.97%.
  • In conclusion, while yesterday’s action was positive, penetrations of significant overhanging supply need to be violated before altering our near term “neutral” outlook for the major equity indexes.

  • SPX: 2,821/2,894
  • DJI: 25,514/26,083
  • Nasdaq: 7,648/7,910
  • NDX: 7,358/7,550
  • DJT: 9,991/10,356
  • MID: 1,851/1,900
  • Russell: 1,466/1,520
  • VALUA: 5,889/6,101
  • Resistance Levels Remain Formidable

    The major equity indexes closed mixed yesterday with negative internals on the NYSE and mixed internals on the NASDAQ as trading volumes increased from those of the prior session. While no resistance levels were violated on the charts, several of the indexes saw significant intraday reversals with chart action suggestive of some near term bottoms being achieved. The bulk of the data is unavailable this morning but we would suspect the previous oversold conditions for the McClellan 1-day OB/OS Oscillators have been relieved. Importantly, in our opinion, significant overhanging volume persists on the charts suggesting yet more work may be required to continue advancing. As such, we are maintaining our near term “neutral” outlook for the major equity indexes.

    On the charts, the indexes closed mixed yesterday with DJI (page 2), DJT (page 4) and RTY (page 5) closing lower as the rest advanced.

      Charts Imply Short-Term Bottom Achieved
       

      Related Articles

      Charts Imply Short-Term Bottom Achieved

      Add a Comment

      Comment Guidelines

      We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

      •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

      •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

      •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

      • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
      • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
      • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
      • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
      • Only English comments will be allowed.
      • Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

      Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

      Write your thoughts here
       
      Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
       
      Post
      Post also to:
       
      Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
      1000
      Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
      Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
      Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
      Comments (1)
      Velarie Lee
      Velarie Lee Aug 08, 2019 11:11AM ET
      Saved. See Saved Items.
      This comment has already been saved in your Saved Items
      Last night & today’s “rally” are just dead cat bounces so as just to close the gaps before the selling resumes.
       
      Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
       
      Post
       
      Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
      1000
      Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
      Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
      Add Chart to Comment
      Confirm Block

      Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

      By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

      %USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

      Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

      Report this comment

      I feel that this comment is:

      Comment flagged

      Thank You!

      Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
      Continue with Apple
      Continue with Google
      or
      Sign up with Email