Data Mostly NeutralOpinion
All of the indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes declined from the prior session on both exchanges. The charts saw some further improvement in the form of some downtrend lines and resistance levels being violated. The data is largely neutral with two mildly cautious signals appearing. So in spite of this morning’s concerns in the escalation of trade war rhetoric resulting in weak futures, we remain near term “neutral/positive” in our outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed higher Thursday with positive internals. The DJI (page 2) and COMPQX (page 3) closed above their near term downtrend lines and tested resistance. The NDX (page 3) closed above its near term downtrend line as well as did the RTY (page 5) and VALUA (page 5). The MID (page 4) and VALUA also both managed to close above their resistance levels while the SPX (page 2) tested resistance but failed to violate. So we now find all of the index charts in neutral trends, with the one exception of the MID remaining in its downtrend, while market breadth has improved with the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ cumulative advance/decline lines turning positive and above their 50 DMAs.
- The data is largely neutral with two minor cautionary signals. The NYSE 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillator is mildly overbought with the rest staying neutral (All Exchange:+36.24/-2.73 NYSE:+54.2/+7.25 NASDAQ:+19.8/-10.38). The Total Put/Call Ratio is mildly bullish 0.85 while the Equity P/C is a neutral 0.61. However, the OEX Put/Call Ratio now finds the pros mildly bearish at 1.43.
- In conclusion, there is a possibility that support levels might be tested again as the futures suggest a weaker open due to an increase in trade war rhetoric. However, given the evidence presented above, we remain near term “neutral/positive” in our outlook for the major equity indexes.