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U.S. stock futures cautious ahead of jobs report, election

Published 11/04/2016, 07:08 AM
© Reuters.  Wall Street points to lower open ahead of employment data, election jitters in play
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Investing.com - Wall Street futures pointed to a flat open on Friday as investors waited for the publication of the October employment report and investors prepared to gauge if the S&P 500 would break its longest losing streak in 8 years.

The blue-chip Dow futures inched up 3 points, or 0.02%, by 7:01AM ET (11:01GMT), the S&P 500 futures edged forward 1 point, or 0.05%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 11 points, or 0.22%.

Jitters over the uncertain outcome of the November 8 presidential election stateside, a more lackluster week of corporate earnings reports, a confirmation on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve was prepared to hike interest rates in December caused investors to take a risk-off attitude with respect to equities.

After closing lower on Thursday, the S&P 500 logged its longest losing streak since October 2008.

Futures were showing choppy trade on Friday, but if the principal global equity benchmark were to end the day lower, that would be its longest stretch of losses since December 1980.

With recent opinion polls showing the presidential race tightening between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, analysts were chalking recent market jitters up to the fact that a Trump victory was considered the big “unknown”.

Experts said that markets had previously discounted a Clinton victory, but the recent close race forced traders to consider the possibility of a Trumph triumph, with uncertainty reigning over how he would undertake economic policies and concerns that his actions would hurt global trade.

For Friday’s session, market players looked ahead to the publication of the October employment report which the U.S. Labor Department will release at 8:30AM ET (12:30GMT) on Friday.

The consensus forecast is that the data will show jobs growth of 175,000, following an increase of 156,000 in September, the unemployment rate is forecast to dip to 4.9% from 5.0%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% after gaining 0.2% a month earlier.

An upbeat employment report will point to an improving economy and support the case for higher interest rates in the coming months, while a weak report would add to uncertainty over the economic outlook and push prospects of tighter monetary policy further off the table.

Markets are currently betting on a rate hike in December with odds at 66.8%, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool.

Friday’s economic calendar had several appearances from Fed officials in what would be the first remarks after not only last Wednesday’s decision to hold on rates but also the possibility to comment on today’s jobs report.

These include Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart, Fed governor Lael Brainard, Dallas Fed president Robert Kaplan and Fed vice chair Stanley Fischer.

Meanwhile, oil underwent choppy trade on Friday, heading for a sixth straight day of declines and chalking up weekly losses of more than 8% as U.S. crude stockpiles racked up a record build this week.

Concerns over the supply glut were supported by members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) insisting on their right to be granted an exemption from any eventual agreement to curb production even as the cartel’s output hit an all-time high last month.

Furthermore, investors were look ahead to production stateside with the rig count data from Baker Hughes later on Friday. The prior week the oilfield services provider said that the number of U.S. rigs drilling for oil did slip by 2 to 441, but that came after 8 straight weeks of increases from 406 to 443.

U.S. crude oil futures gained 0.07% to $44.69 at 7:06AM ET (11:06GMT), while Brent oil traded down 0.28% to $46.22.

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