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The stock market is 'desensitized to terrorist attacks'

Published 03/23/2016, 05:06 PM
Updated 03/24/2016, 07:50 AM
© Justin Sullivan/Getty Images, NYPD tactical police officers stand guard near the New York Stock Exchange on September 9, 2011, in New York City.
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Following the attacks in Brussels, political and security-focused reactions poured in from around the world.

According to Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James, as devastating as the attacks were, financial markets had little reaction.

"US financial market participants appeared to shrug off concerns about terrorism, following attacks in Brussels," said Brown in a note on Wednesday.

He continued: "Sad to say, but the financial markets may have become desensitized to terrorist attacks. In the past, we might have seen a bigger move in the price of oil or the dollar."

As the dollar and oil are influenced by international developments, it's in these areas that investors' shock would be most likely to manifest. As Brown notes, however, these assets didn't move drastically, finishing slightly up for the day following the Brussels attacks.

This also held true for stock indices around the world, as the FTSE 100 in the UK, DAX in Germany, and S&P 500 in the US all started their respective trading sessions down on Tuesday morning but ended the day relatively flat.

Brown also noted that, in the long run, the impact on economics tends to be negligible as well.

"Economists have studied the effects of terrorism and, sadly, have had plenty of opportunity to do so," wrote Brown.

He said:

Some acts of terrorism are isolated incidents; some are recurring events over long periods of time (such as the IRA bombings in the U.K. or Basque separatists' attacks in Spain). Simply put, the broad range of research suggests that while economic activity may be distorted for a short period, there is usually little lasting impact.

The largest reaction, in fact, came from the British pound. Because of increased concerns over a UK exit from the European Union in reaction to the attacks, the country's currency weakened considerably.

"In June, the U.K. will vote on staying in the European Union," said Brown. "It's widely expected to remain in the EU, but the attack in Brussels was seen as boosting the odds of an exit somewhat (hence, viewed as more of a negative for the British currency)."

Brown suggests that markets are not responding to these attacks simply because of its commonality following the Paris attacks in November and San Bernardino shooting in December.

Regardless of the reason, Brown concluded, such events should still be noted.

"Regarding the terrorist attacks in Brussels, our thoughts and prayers are with the victims and their families," he wrote.

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