The dollar fell against most of the other major currencies on Friday, while the yen strengthened broadly, as fresh falls in oil prices and equities underlined concerns over the outlook for the global economy.
The dollar found broad support as largely upbeat U.S. data earlier in the week reinforced the view that the Federal Reserve is likely to say on a monetary tightening path this year.
Data on Friday showed that the U.S. consumer price index rose at an annual rate of 1.4% in January, ahead of expectations for a 1.3% increase. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by a larger than forecast 2.2%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to today’s survey data on euro zone business activity, for indications on the health of the region’s economy.
The week will also bring a look at business sentiment in both the euro zone and the U.S. and Thursday’s report on U.S. durable goods orders will give investors fresh insight on the strength of the manufacturing sector.
The single currency posted slight gains on Friday to end a five-day losing streak, amid solid U.S. inflation data which bolstered hawkish arguments for accelerated monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve this year.
The currency pair traded between 1.1067 and 1.1139 before settling up 0.22% on the session.
Today investors’s focus will be on the euro zone survey data on manufacturing and service sector activity and on Germany and France individual reports, for indications on the health of the EU’s economy.
Pivot: 1.1145Support: 1.107 1.104 1.099Resistance: 1.1145 1.1185 1.121Scenario 1: short positions below 1.1145 with targets @ 1.1070 & 1.1040 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1.1145 look for further upside with 1.1185 & 1.1210 as targets.Comment: technically the RSI is below its neutrality area at 50.
Gold
Gold prices inched up on Friday, rising for the third consecutive session amid ongoing speculation the Federal Reserve could delay the pace of its tightening for the remainder of 2016.
Gold for February delivery tacked on $4.50, or 0.37%, to close the week up, as fresh falls in oil prices and equities underlined concerns over the outlook for the global economy, boosting demand for safe-haven assets.
On Thursday, gold surged $14.90, or 1.23%, after minutes from the Fed’s January meeting revealed that policymakers worried that tighter global financial conditions could hit the U.S. economy and considered changing their planned path of interest rate hikes in 2016.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s revised data on U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product for a fresh reading on the strength of the economy. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders and consumer confidence will also be in focus.
Pivot: 1226Support: 1210 1200 1191Resistance: 1226 1240 1246Scenario 1: short positions below 1226 with targets @ 1210 & 1200 in extension.Scenario 2: above 1226 look for further upside with 1240 & 1246 as targets.Comment: as long as 1226 is resistance, likely decline to 1210.
WTI Oil
Oil prices fell sharply on Friday, as market players continued to focus on a global supply glut and amid doubts over the likelihood of a collective cut happening anytime soon.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said Thursday that U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 2.1 million barrels last week to an all-time high of 504.1 million barrels, underlining concerns over a domestic supply glut.
In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday, amid mounting concerns over a domestic supply glut. Developments surrounding a potential deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers to cap output will also be in focus.
Pivot: 30.35Support: 28.75 27.75 26.95Resistance: 30.35 32 32.9Scenario 1: short positions below 30.35 with targets @ 28.75 & 27.75 in extension.Scenario 2: above 30.35 look for further upside with 32.00 & 32.90 as targets.Comment: the index currently faces a challenging resistance area at 30.35.
S&P 500
U.S. stocks were mixed after the close on Friday, as gains in the Consumer Services, Technology and Financials sectors led shares higher while losses in the Basic Materials, Telecoms and Utilities sectors led shares lower.
At the close in NYSE, the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.13%, while the S&P 500 index declined 0.01%, and the NASDAQ Composite index climbed 0.38%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking ahead to Friday’s revised data on U.S. fourth quarter gross domestic product for a fresh reading on the strength of the American economy.
Pivot: 1950 Support: 1810 1738 1650 Resistance: 1950 2010 2080 Scenario 1: short positions below 1950 with targets @ 1810 & 1738 in extension. Scenario 2: above 1950 look for further upside with 2010 & 2080 as targets. Comment: the RSI lacks upward momentum.