A Bullish wave, initiated by the paramount monthly Time Factor of February 2023 for the S&P500 P/T 4.223 (High 4.195 Low 3.943), punctuated a vigorous upward movement in the American stock markets. This Climb ignited from the October 2022 Timing's low and validated by the bullish breakout in November 2022, momentarily halted at the July 2023 setup, as previously outlined in our analysis of US tech markets (details available on the Italian section of the website).
We now find ourselves at a potential juncture for all US indexes. When observing through a weekly lens, the current dynamism is profoundly influenced by the Timing originating from the 2020 cycle, encompassing all US markets. Specifically, the S&P 500 recent 4/8 September 2023 P/T 4.351 (High 4.514 Low 4.430) Timing serves as a significant directional beacon for the trajectory of US stock prices in the forthcoming weeks and months.
It's essential to remember that short-term dynamics, like the weekly ones, often exhibit higher instances of false breakouts before markets settle in a decisive direction. The last week's tight trading range, confined within just 100 points, will set the tone leading up to the crucial monthly Timing expected for March 2024 P/T 4.986 / 5.071, in synergy within the quarterly setup of Jan/Mar 2024 P/T 4.506. The prevailing sentiment suggests that if the index breaks past 4.514, it could be poised to further escalate, possibly touching new all-time highs by the third month of Q1 2024. Conversely, a structured dip below the 4.430 area could recalibrate the market towards the pivot zone around 4.111.
A parallel narrative unfolds for the tech markets. Recognizing their significant influence on the S&P 500, we observe an analogous monthly Timing for March and Q1 of 2024 concerning the NASDAQ Composite P/T 16.451 / 16.625. However, it's pertinent to note that the Nasdaq 100 has a distinguished Timing, rooted in the 2008 cycle, placing it four months ahead of other indexes. This Timing is slated for November 2023 at Nasdaq 100 P/T 16.378 / 16.858.