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Short Term Uptrends Persist

Published 09/18/2017, 08:47 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
US500
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Data Unavailable

Opinion: All of the major equity indexes closed higher Friday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes rose on both exchanges during options expiration. Some new closing highs were achieved on the charts as well as some near term resistance levels being violated. As such, all of the near term uptrends remain intact and should continue to be respected, in our opinion. The data is unavailable this morning. We would note, however, the forward 12 month p/e for the SPX based on forward 12 month earnings estimates is over a decade high at an 18.2 multiple.

  • All of the indexes closed higher Friday with positive internals on strong volumes. New closing highs were achieved on the SPX (page 2) and DJI (page 2) while the RTY (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) closed above their respective near term resistance levels. As such, all of the near term uptrend lines remain intact as well as the cumulative advance/decline lines that are also above their 50 DMAs. The stochastic levels that are all well into overbought territory, while of some concern, have yet to flash bearish crossover signals that would raise some yellow flags. As noted in past reports, said stochastic levels can stay overbought for extended periods. Thus, they are not yet actionable.
  • The data is unavailable this morning. All data presented in this report is as of last Thursday’s close.
  • In conclusion, while valuation remains a concern, the charts and cumulative advance/decline lines all imply the current near term uptrends should still be respected until proven otherwise.
  • Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from Bloomberg of $137.23 leave a 5.56 forward earnings yield on a 18.2 forward multiple, over a decade high.

SPX: 2,460/NA

DJI: 21,840/NA

NASDAQ: 6,300/NA

DJT: 9,234/9,550

MID: 1,713/1,760

RTY: 1,395/1,442

VALUA: 5,519/5,650

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