Short Term Trends Unchanged

www.investing.com/analysis/short-term-trends-unchanged-200199450

By Guy S. Ortmann, CMT | Jul 06, 2017 09:01AM ET

Saved. See Saved Items.

This article has already been saved in your Saved Items

US500

-1.78%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

DJI

-0.99%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

IXIC

-2.61%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

DJT

-0.42%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

MID

-1.55%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

RUTNU

+1.03%

Add to/Remove from Watchlist

DJT Makes Second New Closing High

Opinion: The indexes closed mixed yesterday with negative internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were mixed. Volumes rose on both exchanges from the prior session. No technical events of note were registered on the charts, leaving their short term trends mixed and intact. The data remains mixed as well. We continue to be of the opinion that risk/reward is poor for the markets at current levels given extended valuation, high levels of margin debt and investment advisor complacency. The recent break of the COMPQX below support and its 50 DMA add to that concern.

On the charts, the indexes closed mixed yesterday with the SPX (page 2), COMPQX (page 3) and DJT (page 3) closing higher as the rest declined on the day. Internals were broadly negative on the NYSE while the NASDAQ saw a negative advance/decline but up/down volumes positive. No technical events of import occurred other than the DJT making a marginally new closing high. The bulk of the short term trends are neutral with the exceptions of the COMPQX now negative and the DJT positive.

The data is mixed with all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators remaining neutral (All Exchange:2.0/+20.64 NYSE:+2.23/+35.7 NASDAQ:+2.86/+7.7) as are the Equity Put/Call Ratio (0.61) and Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio at 44.0%. The Total Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) is in bullish territory at 0.92 but is being counterbalanced by a very bearish OEX Put/Call Ratio of 2.09 as the pros have loaded up on puts expecting weakness.

In conclusion, we remain of the opinion that a high level of risk is present versus potential reward as the forward valuation of the SPX at an 18.2 multiple (over a decade high) combined with heavy margin exposure up 19.7% y/y and the Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) implying complacency on the part of investment advisors combine to suggest appreciable downside risk is present should an event occur that could cause a shift in sentiment.

Forward 12 month earnings estimates for the SPX from IBES of $133..96 leave a 5.55 forward earnings yield on a 18.2 forward multiple, near a decade high.

SPX: 2,420/NA

DJI: 21,042/NA

COMPQX: 6,070/6,241

DJT: 9,371/NA

Mid: 1,715/1,769

RTY: 1,392/1,427

VALUA: 5,447/5,571

Raytheon vs. Lockheed Martin: Which Stock Has More Upside? By Jea Yu - Mar 06, 2025

Defense stocks took a tumble heading into 2025 as President Trump returned to the White House for his second term. Trump has stated his intent as a peacemaker to bring the wars in...

Is the Nasdaq 100 in a Long-Term Bear Market? By Dr. Arnout ter Schure - Mar 06, 2025 1

Using the Elliott Wave Principle (EWP), we have been tracking the most likely path forward for the Nasdaq 100 (NDX). Although there are many ways to navigate the markets and to...

Volatility Returns—3 Stocks to Track Amid Growing Economic... By Christine Short - Mar 06, 2025 1

Investors are on edge about what tariff policy means for markets Coming off a strong Q4 earnings season, fresh February corporate sales figures can help assess the macro...

Add a Comment

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:

Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.
Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed.
Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.
Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
Only English comments will be allowed.
Any comment you publish, together with your investing.com profile, will be public on investing.com and may be indexed and available through third party search engines, such as Google.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

I have read Investing.com's comments guidelines and agree to the terms described.

I Agree

Write your thoughts here

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Post also to:

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.

<div id="comment">
				<div class="comment js-comment" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
    <div class="mainComment js-content">
       <div class="commentInnerWrapper">
        <a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody">
                					<span class="commentUsername">
                    	<a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link js-user-name">{username}</a>
					</span>
                                <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
                <div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

<div class="js-option addRow follow">
            <div class="js-follow-post-button" data-reg_ep="follow comment">
                <span class="alertfollowIcon middle"></span>Follow this post            </div>
            <div class="js-unfollow-post-button displayNoneImp">
                <span class="alertUnfollowIcon middle"></span>Unfollow this post            </div>
        </div>

<div class="addRow js-option save"  data-reg_ep="save comment">
		<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-save-item-btn" data-item-type="comments" data-item-id="{commentID}">
			<i class="saveItemBigIcon middle"></i>
			Save		</a>
	</div>
	<div class="addRow saveItemsConfirmation noHover displayNone js-saveItemResult">
		
<div class="content js-saveItemSuccess displayNone">
	<span class="mediumGreenSuccessIcon"></span><span>Saved. See <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a>.</span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
<div class="content js-saveItemAlreadySaved saveItemAlreadySaved displayNoneImp">
	<span>This comment has already been saved in your <a href="/members-admin/saved-items" target="_blank">Saved Items</a></span>
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="bugCloseIcon js-close"></a>
</div>
	</div>

<div class="addRow shareButtons js-sharePopup displayNone">
			<div class="js-shareComment"><span class="js-shareCommentSpan"></span></div>
		</div>
	</div>
</div>
                 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div>             </div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="commentBigChart js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

<div class="reportComment js-flag float_lang_base_2">
                            <a href="javascript:void(0);" id="commentFlag_{commentID}">
                                <span class="reportCommentIcon middle"></span><span class="inlineblock middle">Report</span>
                            </a>
                        </div>
                    				</div>
					</div>
	   </div>
	</div>
	</div>			</div>
			<div id="reply">
				
    <div class="commentReply js-comment js-comment-reply" data-comment-id="{commentID}" id="comment-{commentID}" data-user-id="">
		<div class="commentInnerWrapper"><a href="{userLink}" class="js-user-link"><img src="{userImage}" width="33" height="33" alt="{usernameAlt}" class="img" onerror="this.src='https://i-invdn-com.investing.com/defaultUserMaleTmp.png';"></a><div class="commentBody js-content">
            				<span class="commentUsername">
					<a href="{userLink}" class="commentUsername js-user-link js-user-name" onMouseOver="">{username}</a>
				</span>
                        <span class="js-date" comment-date="{dateFormat}" comment-date-formatted="{dateFormatted}" title="{dateTitle}">Just Now</span>
			 <div class="commentAuthor js-comment-by-author"><span class="commentAuthorIcon"></span>Author's response</div> 			<div class="commentDropDown js-commentDropDownWrapper " data-user-id="" data-cid="{commentID}">
	<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="threeDotsIconSmall js-thinDropdownArrow"></a>
	<div class="tooltipPopup commentActionsPop noHeader js-commentDropDownOptions displayNone">
		<div class="addRow js-option share">
			<a href="javascript:void(0);" class="js-commentSharePopup" data-cid="{commentID}" data-curl="{commentLink}"><span class="smallShareIcon middle"></span>Share</a>
		</div>

</div>
		<div id="commentText-{commentID}" class="js-text-wrapper commentText withImage">
							<div id="commentBigChart{commentID}" class="replyBigChart displayNone js-comment-chart">
					<img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImage}" alt="{commentAlt}">
					<i class="newMagnifyChartIcon"></i>
				</div>
				<span id="commentSmallChart{commentID}" class="commentSmallChart pointer js-comment-chart" onclick="openViewChartPopup('{commentID}')">
                    <img src="https://d1-invdn-com.investing.com/comments_images/{commentImageSmall}" width="116" height="52" alt="{commentAlt}">
                    <span class="chartMagnifyOverlay displayNone"></span>
                    <span class="searchGlassIcon chartMagnify displayNone"></span>
                </span>
						<span class="js-text">{commentContent}</span>
			<div class="clear"></div>
							<div class="commentButtons js-not-master-user">
					<a href="javascript:void(0)" class="reply js-reply-btn" data-real-parent-id="{commentID}" data-to-user-name="{username}" data-to-user-id="">Reply</a>
					<div class="inlineblock likeDislikeBox js-like-dislike-box" data-item-id="{commentID}">
	<input class="js-like-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="Yes" id="like_{commentID}">
	<label for="like_{commentID}" class="like" title="I agree"></label>
	<span class="numOfLikes js-like-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
	<input class="js-dislike-checkbox" type="checkbox" name="option" value="No" id="dislike_{commentID}">
	<label for="dislike_{commentID}" class="dislike" title="I disagree"></label>
	<span class="numOfDislikes js-dislike-count lighterGrayFont">0</span>
</div>

Are you sure you want to delete this chart?

Delete Cancel

Post

Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?

Replace Cancel

1000

Comment Guidelines

Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.

Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.

I feel that this comment is:

Spam

Offensive

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review

Central Banks

Interest Rates

Next Meeting

FED

4.50%

Mar 19, 2025

ECB

2.65%

Mar 06, 2025

BOE

4.50%

Mar 20, 2025

SNB

0.50%

Mar 20, 2025

RBA

4.10%

Apr 01, 2025

BOC

3.00%

Mar 12, 2025

RBNZ

3.75%

Apr 09, 2025

BOJ

0.50%

Mar 19, 2025

CBR

21.00%

Mar 21, 2025

RBI

6.25%

Mar 10, 2025

PBOC

3.10%

BCB

13.25%

Mar 19, 2025

US 30	42,677.0	+98.2	+0.23%
US 500	5,760.9	+22.4	+0.39%
Dow Jones	42,579.08	-427.51	-0.99%
S&P 500	5,738.52	-104.11	-1.78%
Nasdaq	18,069.26	-483.48	-2.61%
S&P 500 VIX	24.87	+2.94	+13.41%
Dollar Index	104.040	+0.012	+0.01%

Crude Oil WTI	66.55	+0.19	+0.29%
Brent Oil	69.71	+0.25	+0.36%
Natural Gas	4.275	-0.003	-0.07%
Gold	2,915.52	-11.08	-0.38%
Silver	33.225	-0.113	-0.34%
Copper	4.7825	+0.0077	+0.16%
US Soybeans	1,028.13	-0.13	-0.01%

U.S. 10Y	4.251	-0.031	-0.72%
U.S. 30Y	4.557	-0.022	-0.48%
U.S. 5Y	4.031	-0.027	-0.67%
U.S. 3M	4.329	+0.018	+0.42%
US 10Y T-Note	110.98	+0.20	+0.18%
Euro Bund	127.80	-0.05	-0.04%
10-2 Yield Spread	27.17	+1.56	+6.09%

Apple	235.33	-0.41	-0.17%
NVIDIA	110.57	-6.73	-5.74%
Alphabet A	172.35	-0.67	-0.39%
Tesla	263.45	-15.65	-5.61%
Amazon.com	200.70	-7.66	-3.68%
Netflix	906.36	-84.56	-8.53%
Meta Platforms	627.93	-28.54	-4.35%

Short Term Trends Unchanged

Related Articles