Data Stays Largely NeutralOpinion
Most of the indexes closed lower yesterday with negative internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were mixed and volumes rose on both exchanges from the prior session. No technical events of import were registered on the charts, leaving the dominance of short term downtrends intact. The data remains largely neutral. Thus, given the state of the charts and data combined with extended valuation, investment advisor complacency, high levels of margin debt and questionable market breadth, we remain near term “negative” in our outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, the bulk of the indexes closed lower yesterday with the exceptions of the MID (page 4) and RTY (page 4). No trends, support or resistance levels were violated leaving all of the indexes in their short term downtrends with the exception of the neutral trend for the COMPQX (page 3). Cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and NASDAQ are neutral, positive and negative respectively.
- The data remains largely neutral including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All exchange:-2.16/+9.02 NYSE:+3.86/+34.33 NASDAQ:-18.7/-25.02). The Equity and OEX Put/Call Ratios are neutral at 0.62 and 1.0 while the Total Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) now finds the crowd heavy in calls at a bearish 0.65. The most recent Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) still finds investment advisors to have a high degree of complacency as bulls well outweigh bears at 17.5/56.3.
- In conclusion, while the futures indicate a positive open, we have yet to see enough of a change in the current weight of the evidence to alter our near term “negative” outlook for the major equity indexes.