Data Remains NeutralOpinion
The indexes closed mixed yesterday with negative internals as volumes declined from the prior session. All closed at or near their intraday highs. Nothing of technical import occurred on the charts to alter their mix of neutral and positive short term trends. In fact, since our comments of one week ago, very little has changed in the technical pictures with one chart exception. The data is almost entirely neutral as well. So as much as we would like to have something new to say, the charts and data continue to send the same “neutral/positive” message for the indexes over the near term, in our opinion. The intermediate term remains unchanged at “neutral” given the high forward valuation of the SPX.
- On the charts, nothing of import occurred yesterday that we would consider to be worthy of note. The DJI (page 2), SPX, (page 2), MID (page 4), RUT (page 4) and VALUA (page 5) all remain in their sideways short term trading patterns while the COMPQX (page 3) is slightly positive given its series of higher near term lows. The DJT (page 3), at this point in time, is the most interesting for us as it remains in a short term uptrend after having violated near term resistance late last week and is now challenging what we view as an important new resistance level. Should it break resistance on a closing basis, it would move the DJT up and out of and extended basing pattern that could prove to be of some importance, by our work.
- The data is almost completely neutral including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:-28.81/-7.48 NYSE:-35.35/-8.65 NASAQ:-19.87/-2.46). The WST Ratio Composite (42.9/118.6), OEX Put/Call Ratio (1.36) and Gambill Insider Buy/Sell Ratio (10.8) are all neutral as well. The new AAII Bear Bull Ratio also continues its neutral message at 27.9/28.79 while the Equity Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) is a mildly bullish 0.71. So there is little to no wind in the sails of the data dashboard to imply a near term directional movement of import up or down.
- In conclusion, the “broken record” message over the past several sessions coming from the data and charts continues to be one of “neutral/positive” by our work while extended forward valuation keeps our intermediate term view at “neutral”.