Some Sentiment At Opposite Extremes
Opinion
Yesterday’s action in the equity markets did nothing to change our neutral/negative short term outlook for the major equity indexes. Volume and breadth on the NYSE continue to imply institutional distribution as NASDAQ breadth narrows. With the 21 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators near or at overbought levels and some sentiment data at opposite extremes, we still believe near term risk is somewhat elevated at this point.
- On the charts, very little changed as of the close. With most of the indexes closing lower on the day, we would note NYSE up/down volume and breadth were negative with volumes easily surpassing those of Friday’s advance. These volume dynamics remain a concern. While the COMPQX (page 3) rose, breadth continues to narrow, also a concern. The DJI (page 2) and MID (page 4) both tested resistance and failed to rise above. And although they are not major signals, the stochastic levels for the SPX, COMPQX, MID and RUT are all on bearish stochastic crossover signals suggesting a deterioration of A/D and Up/Down volume characteristics. As such, there is a bit of a cloud hanging over the charts, in our opinion.
- Looking at the data, The 1 day McClellan OB/OS Oscillators are neutral for the NYSE (-13.02) and NASDAQ (+18.21). However, the NYSE 21 day is an overbought +89.02 with the NASDAQ 21 day just shy of overbought territory at +49.51. Sentiment is still cautionary as the leveraged ETF traders measured by the Rydex Ratio (contrary indicator) are back at bullish sentiment extremes at 60.7 while the pros measured by the OEX Put/Call Ratio (smart money) are betting heavily on weakness at 2.16. Finally, as stated in prior reports, with the P/E for the SPX based on forward 12 month First Call earnings estimates at a decade high of 15.7X, we believe there is little room for error.
- We remain of the opinion that the near term outlook for the equity indexes is neutral to negative in nature.
- For the longer term, we remain bullish on equities as they remain comparatively undervalued with a 6.36% forward earnings yield for the SPX based on 12 month IBES forward earnings estimates of $127.38 versus the 10 Year Treasury yield of 2.47%.
- SPX: 1,979/?
- DJI: 16,980/17,140
- NASDAQ: 4,450/?
- DJT: 8,294/?
- MID: 1,420/1,444
- RUT: 1,160/1,180