No Change In Short Term TrendsOpinion
The bulk of the indexes closed lower Friday with the exception of the RTY. Internals were negative in the NYSE and NASDAQ as volumes declined from the prior session on both exchanges. There were no shifts in trends or violations of support/resistance on the charts. The data remains mixed with no near term directional probabilities indicated. Thus we are maintaining our near term “negative outlook for the major equity indexes.
- On the charts, all of the indexes closed lower Friday except for the RTY (page 4) that saw a fractional gain. Internals were negative. All of the indexes are still in their respective short term downtrends with the exceptions of the COMPQX (page 3) and DJT (page 3) that are in sideways, rectangle patterns. Support/resistance levels remain intact. Cumulative breadth remains negative on the NASDAQ, neutral on the All Exchange and positive on the NYSE.
- The data remains mixed. On the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators, only the NYSE 21 day is overbought as the remainder are neutral (All Exchange:+14.52/+32.74 NYSE:+22.17/+64.76 NASDAQ:-7.2/+11.35). The Equity Put/Call Ratio is neutral at 0.67 while the Total and OEX Put/Call Ratios are on bullish signals at 0.95 and 0.5 respectively.
- In conclusion, there was nothing on Friday that would cause a shift in our near term negative outlook for the major equity indexes. As mentioned in prior comments, high margin debt, investment advisor complacency, extended valuation and questionable market breadth remain concerns as well.