Near-Term Outlook Remains Neutral/Positive

Published 08/15/2016, 10:22 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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Data Remains Largely Neutral

Opinion

The indexes closed mixed on Friday with negative internals on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were mixed. Volumes remained subdued with NYSE volume below the prior session’s level. No technical events of import were registered on the charts while the data remains largely in the neutral camp. As such, our near term outlook remains “neutral/positive” while valuation keeps our intermediate term view “neutral”.

  • On the charts, the indexes closed mixed Friday with only the COMPQX (page 3) and RUT (page 4) posting gains. The rest saw minor losses. Internals were slightly negative on the NYSE while NASDAQ internals were mixed. Volumes remained tepid. The net result from a technical view was that no chart events occurred to alter the current generally slightly positive tone of the charts, with the exception of the DJT (page 3) that remains in its long term downtrend.
  • The data remains largely neutral including all of the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators (All Exchange:-11.8/+32.8 NYSE:-17.29/+42.76 NASDAQ:-7.43/+23.04). The Total and OEX Put/Call Ratios are neutral at 0.76 and 1.39 respectively along with a 12.8 Gambill Insider Buy/Sell Ratio. The Equity Put/Call Ratio (contrary indicator) is bearish at 0.55 with the crowd long calls as well as the WST Ratio and its Composite at 79.6 and 160.9 respectively. However, those cautionary signals are not sufficient, in our opinion, to tilt the scales negative from their current neutral message.
  • In conclusion, nothing occurred on Friday from either the charts or data to cause a shift from our “neutral/positive” short term projections for the major indexes. However, historically high valuation for the SPX keeps our intermediate term view at “neutral”.
  • Forward 12-month earnings estimates for the SPX from IBES of $127.38 leave a 5.83% forward earnings yield on a 17.1 forward multiple.
  • SPX: 2,160/NA
  • DJI: 18,374/NA
  • NASDAQ: 5,108/NA
  • DJT: 7,540/7,861
  • MID: 1,534/NA
  • Russell: 1,199/1,244
  • VALUA: 4,811/4,939

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