Light Selling Keeps Resistance Intact

Published 05/07/2020, 12:09 AM

Indices had looked ready to break beyond last week's swing highs, but in the end they weren't able to push through yesterday. However, the damage was minimal. 

The S&P had a small bearish engulfing pattern to Tuesday's doji. On a positive front, Tuesday's action closed the breakdown gap even if it ultimately wasn't able to challenge the 'bull trap'.

SPX Daily Chart

The NASDAQ managed small gains but not enough to generate a fresh breakout. Technicals are all positive, including a relative performance advantage against the S&P, so it's still the index most likely to break out.

COMPQ Daily Chart

The Russell 2000 (via iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM)) had broken rising support but remains above breakout support. However, it's underperforming against the NASDAQ and it's the most distant from its swing high. Small Caps are a required leadership sector in a bull market and its early promise has since stalled. We are still looking at a struggling market. 

IWM Daily Chart

With the NASDAQ is best placed to rally, it's somewhat concerning to see the Semiconductor Index struggle. Yesterday's close saw a 'sell' trigger in the MACD coming off a breakdown in the rising trendline. 

SOX Daily Chart

For the rest of the week we need to see the NASDAQ lead out the weaker S&P and Russell 2000, but it's the Russell 2000 which really needs to push ahead in relative performance and it's hard to see it happening at the moment. 

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